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Listen up, folks. There's much good news. The end of this pandemic may be near. But a very harsh winter is upon us. Like other viruses, this one seems sharply seasonal. People need to rethink everything and *hunker down*, now. It's so close. Don't risk it. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/lock-yourself-down-now/617106/
Things one could cautiously do in summer are much higher risk now. Cold and humidity affect the survivability of the virus. A nationwide surge means regions cannot bail each other out. I've always advocated for the least restrictive precautions possible. Right now, it's serious.
There's been undue doomsaying. We should acknowledge the good news. There's been unwarranted scolding. Let's recognize the fatigue. There's been misplaced measures—parks closed, indoor dining open. We still don't have the leadership we need. But here we are. Protect yourself.
Real talk: The next few months are looking like a terrible time for COVID. Seasonality means more infections; holidays are a potential national superspreading event; there is no aid to help people stay home and no better masks; and overloaded hospitals will mean worse mortality.
Safer than indoors, as usual. But everything is higher risk during a surge: more chances of encountering someone infected. Plus winter air may be aiding the virus. Plus overloaded hospitals mean worse outcomes. Wear a good mask everywhere around people not in one’s small bubble. https://twitter.com/cubafrita/status/1327640754307665920
I would disagree. The constant predictions of doom and superspreading from beach and outdoor events were not helpful, and are part of the reason we don’t have credibility to warn people when it counts and about what counts. Which is now and Thanksgiving and Christmas travel. 
https://twitter.com/statwonk/status/1327994973057290243
https://twitter.com/statwonk/status/1327994973057290243
This is true, I think. Also why some of the most alarmist Twitter accounts/news media are not helpful. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong but, crucially, they blunt our ability to tell the difference and alternatively induce shrugging or overreaction. https://twitter.com/graemeblake/status/1327998733955555328
Yes. We bungled this. First, we didn't trust them on masks ("they'll have false sense of security!") and *then* switched to shaming them for not wearing masks on a vast beach ("covidiots!", grim reaper!). Gave rigid rules instead of explaining mechanisms. https://twitter.com/loafingcactus/status/1328003817389105159
Totally disagree. Both the CDC and the WHO had to be pushed to accept, let alone properly explain, airborne/aerosol transmission. So many places are still drowning everything in bleach but not opening windows—or setting up greenhouses as "outdoor" dining. https://twitter.com/ultrail/status/1328005187512922112
An excellent graphic from Japan translated by the amazing @miekocakes. See my article with all the good news (vaccine! therapeutics!) but why Thanksgiving is a risk you don't want to take now. This thing looks *sharply* seasonal, please, up your cautions. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/lock-yourself-down-now/617106/
Another excellent news on the vaccine front. Show them the developments—vaccine on its way but the winter crisis is here, ahead of it—and talk your family out of Thanksgiving travel or large indoor dinner. So close. But still in great danger, with hospitals getting slammed now. https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1328309666091311106
