Like many others I couldn't stop asking why what happened in Cagayan Valley happened. I noticed an interesting detail in this memo going around that supposedly signals advance warning to the LGUs of a possible dam release.

CAVEATS follow, but with that, Thread:

Warning: the ff is my idle speculation based on my stock knowledge of govt disaster response. My analysis is certainly not 100% correct, but may be a loose thread worth tugging at.

The detail that sets me off in the NIA memo is: the guy writing this is a mere division manager.

What does that mean? He's a low-mid level bureaucrat, several steps below the mayor/governor in formal rank. In actual clout, a universe apart. Especially in the province, LGU executives are different from you and me. Hari o tatay yung turing. The power dynamic here is relevant.

Look how he ends the memo - he doesn't even have the authority to spell out what the LGUs should do with this information. He can't even tell them they should be making ready to evacuate!

He doesn't even reference drills or protocols for this situation because he likely hasn't been included in them, if they happened at all. The elected officials maybe have no idea who he is. It's not like he controls any of their budget so they have no reason to know.

So this mid-level guy writes, but CC's everyone - a sign that this letter is really CYA more than anything. Maybe it was received by the local DRRM office. But what if the DRRM office is full of yes-men who can't bring the mayor bad news (you would think, no...)

Remember, elected officials walk above the ground in the province. Who's going to be the guy to bring the bad news? To tell the mayor or governor to suddenly cancel all their weekend plans, to move thousands of families out? To cut mayor's vacation in Manila short?

What happened in Cagayan Valley happened, because it was always going to happen - in the middle of a system that cannot process bad news seriously, quickly and efficiently, and where clout trumps expertise.

Of course, what could have been done? Think...

Who should be getting this information as well? Who controls NIA and ultimately manages the dams? Whose call will definitely get picked up by the LGUs? Who can outright command them through the DILG?

The NATIONAL EXECUTIVE BRANCH!

For the dam operator, it's a classic trolley problem. Either you open the dam gates and flood the valley, or you *don't* open the gates, risking a dam breach, which floods the valley anyway but much, much worse. Guy probably had no choice.

But someone could have done something.

It's cold comfort that the executive branch made noises about holding accountable the mayor who was partying in Manila while his city choked under mud. But the fact that they sounded like they *didn't even know he was there* showed that someone else wasn't at their station.

Another question: some have asked, why not release water early/preventively? My hypothesis: https://twitter.com/anthony_siy/status/1327617895556292608

There are some bitter pills to swallow. In addition to learning harsh lessons about improving physical and geographical systems, we have a long way to go in ensuring that organizational and even political systems can truly make it so this doesn't happen again.