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I tried to warn about this months ago, but we have over-reacted to covid. Covid is bad, but it was similar to a bad flu season.
We would have killed more people during any flu season if we reacted to it like we are reacting to covid.
Let's compare covid to the 17/18 flu.
We would have killed more people during any flu season if we reacted to it like we are reacting to covid.
Let's compare covid to the 17/18 flu.
An interesting point in NISRA data is they have a category for "respiratory" deaths. We can therefore divide deaths into "respiratory" and "non-respiratory".
Any covid deaths are respiratory, so changes in non-respiratory have largely been caused by the reaction.
Any covid deaths are respiratory, so changes in non-respiratory have largely been caused by the reaction.
I'll be comparing these years from week 40 to week 39 of the calendar year. This is to cover the whole flu season. There's no point starting Jan 1st.
NISRA classifies deaths as respiratory. ALL covid deaths are included as this. Any mention on the death certificate is enough.
NISRA classifies deaths as respiratory. ALL covid deaths are included as this. Any mention on the death certificate is enough.
To Week 39 (week ending 2nd October) in 2020 there were 902 covid deaths, and all will be included as respiratory.
This is almost certainly an over-count, as a positive test isn't even necessary. This will result in some 'non-respiratory' deaths moving over to 'respiratory'.
This is almost certainly an over-count, as a positive test isn't even necessary. This will result in some 'non-respiratory' deaths moving over to 'respiratory'.
The Department of Health counts all deaths for any cause within 28 days of a positive covid test. They recorded 583 having occurred by Week 39.
So NISRA recorded >300 deaths without a +ve test within 28 days as covid, because there was some mention of covid on the death cert.
So NISRA recorded >300 deaths without a +ve test within 28 days as covid, because there was some mention of covid on the death cert.
So I would argue that 2020 respiratory deaths are an over-count. For example, an asymptomatic but PCR +ve cancer death should be non-respiratory but will move to the respiratory category if covid is mentioned on the death cert.
But with that caveat, here's the comparison.
But with that caveat, here's the comparison.
First we can compare respiratory deaths for both years. Two clear epidemics of respiratory virus. Both look similar. The only unusual thing about 2020 is that it came out of the usual season for respiratory viruses.
But it terms of severity and length, they were similar.
But it terms of severity and length, they were similar.
I don't think we suppressed covid through interventions because the timeline was similar all over Europe.
Sweden, with no lockdown, also peaked in April. They haven't changed their strategy and are having another peak now.
Sweden, with no lockdown, also peaked in April. They haven't changed their strategy and are having another peak now.
Here is the same data from the graph above shown cumulatively.
19/20: 4834 respiratory deaths
17/18: 4780 respiratory deaths
Pretty similar, apart from the timing of the peak.
2020 had a mild flu season, then cumulative deaths caught up in Spring because of covid.
19/20: 4834 respiratory deaths
17/18: 4780 respiratory deaths
Pretty similar, apart from the timing of the peak.
2020 had a mild flu season, then cumulative deaths caught up in Spring because of covid.
But there was a clear difference between these two years; Panic.
And this is reflected in non-respiratory deaths.
We shut down normal health care. The government/media scared people into not going to hospital. An epidemic of loneliness and despair.
And this is reflected in non-respiratory deaths.
We shut down normal health care. The government/media scared people into not going to hospital. An epidemic of loneliness and despair.
This is what happens. The focus here should be the top line. The non-respiratory deaths.
2019/20 ended up with 601 more non-respiratory deaths than 2017/18. Despite being in a much better position (-211) pre-lockdown.
Since lockdown, the hysteria has led to a constant surplus.
2019/20 ended up with 601 more non-respiratory deaths than 2017/18. Despite being in a much better position (-211) pre-lockdown.
Since lockdown, the hysteria has led to a constant surplus.
And now we have Robin Swann saying that non-covid patients may not get life-saving treatment due to the need to treat covid patients.
This is insane. But it is what we get when the spotlight is on covid. This was not the case with flu in 17/18. https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/cancer-sufferers-may-die-due-to-need-to-treat-covid-19-patients-swann-39745491.html
This is insane. But it is what we get when the spotlight is on covid. This was not the case with flu in 17/18. https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/cancer-sufferers-may-die-due-to-need-to-treat-covid-19-patients-swann-39745491.html
Are the hospitals full now? No!
We have less patients that we did in July.
The problem is that a health system that was already under stress for years can't cope when many staff are made to isolate for 14 days because they are a close contact with someone who tested positive.
We have less patients that we did in July.
The problem is that a health system that was already under stress for years can't cope when many staff are made to isolate for 14 days because they are a close contact with someone who tested positive.
This needs to be reconsidered if people are missing out on life-saving treatment.
I would rather receive urgent treatment from staff that have tested negative twice and never had any symptoms after 10 days isolation, rather than insist they see out the 14 days.
I would rather receive urgent treatment from staff that have tested negative twice and never had any symptoms after 10 days isolation, rather than insist they see out the 14 days.
And there shouldn't be a hierarchy of disease. Decisions obviously have to be made if resources are stretched. But covid shouldn't automatically get priority just because it is getting more attention in the media.
This isn't to downplay covid. Covid is bad. But so is flu.
But the damage from lockdowns is catastrophic. And unlike the epidemics, this was avoidable. We should have followed standard pandemic protocol.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf
But the damage from lockdowns is catastrophic. And unlike the epidemics, this was avoidable. We should have followed standard pandemic protocol.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Or the following, from the WHO influenza pandemic preparedness guidance published in 2019.
Contact tracing - not recommended
Quarantine of exposed individuals - not recommended
Some measures for avoiding crowds, but no mention of stopping people visiting family etc.
Contact tracing - not recommended
Quarantine of exposed individuals - not recommended
Some measures for avoiding crowds, but no mention of stopping people visiting family etc.
We have NOT been following the science. We have been copying other countries, who copied China. And it's clearly costing lives.
We have to go back to the old normal as soon as possible.
We have to go back to the old normal as soon as possible.
"When good science is suppressed by the medical-political complex, people die" https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4425?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage
