Tim is asking a very good question. Will protesters in Belarus now dig in like in Kyiv 2013? So far they have not acted like the Ukrainians on Maidan but Lukashenka has on the other hand followed Yanik's (Kremlin's) crack-down manual very accurately.
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On many occasions we have seen protesters disarm the security forces by surrounding them so they can not complete their mission of beating and detaining protesters. As far as I have seen most such actions have been spontaneous, but they don't have to be.
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With a minimum of additional organization protesters in Belarus could deny the security forces the opportunity to detain protesters. But the protesters have to be willing to act with a little bit more aggression to succeed with the surround and deny detention tactics.
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With further organization protesters in Belarus could also launch protest marches at any time without prior announcements to get the security forces to deploy. The purpose is to keep the security forces on edge and to wear them down.
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By denying the security forces the opportunity to use violence and detain protesters while at the same time keeping them deployed for long stretches of time Lukashenka might lose the streets, and that would be a victory for protesters.
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To succeed with the above tactics a substantial number of protesters need to be willing to subject to orders and be reliable enough to follow orders, the structure and communication in it have to be kept secret and it have to be possible to identify infiltrators.
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But protesters in Belarus have already showed they have enormous courage, are willing to sacrifice, can innovate new lines of communication and have on many occasions successfully faced down the security forces so tougher tactics should be possible.
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The above tactics can also be supported by sting operations where a small group of protesters seek out state officials, or their family members, and calmly inform these people that they better defect, with amnesty, or their life's will never be the same again.
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Being alone and confronted by a well organized group of protesters can of course be very scary for a non violent member of the regime but it can be very effective to push them to defect. Very important to keep these actions non-violent to keep the moral high ground.
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As things are looking now, with ever increasing violence and terror from the regime it is hard to see any other continuation of the protests if the protesters themselves don't muscle up and fight back with more than mass rallies, hoisting of flags and solidarity chains.
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Economic warfare against the regime is one tactic that the protesters have actively pursued, and it is a very good weapon against the regime. But so far mass strikes have failed to materialize and even if the economy is weakening it might take a very long time.
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The above tactics can easily be combined with current activities and it can be executed without violence. One advantage is also that it will not require hundreds of thousands of dedicated people, but with thousands.
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