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1. This convincing picture (from the Mirror) of two good friends forever is intended in part to convince that despite the catastroshambles HMG’s Brexit negotiating position is entirely unaffected.
I’m not so sure.
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I’m not so sure.
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2. It’s important to point out that lots of commentators much more knowledgeable and infinitely more connected (I’m not at all) than me think that this view is not correct.
And they may well be right.
But I have my doubts.
And they may well be right.
But I have my doubts.
3. There’s no doubt about the scale of the implosion in No 10. The PM has lost (arguably) his two most important advisors in highly acrimonious circumstances (this sort of thing is never friendly). And the implosion has attracted huge media coverage.
4. And, in the context of the negotiations, the implosion is especially noteworthy because the two leavers were among the most prominent leavers. DC was, arguably, the most important intellectual proponent of Brexit.
5. It is impossible for this not to be discussed and speculated about. Whether or not the implosion does have any real impact it will be evaluated by the EU and they will draw a conclusion (one way or another). Yes they will.
6. Returning to No 10, there’s media chatter about the negotiating team needing to be reassured. I’m not surprised. There’s no way the implosion cannot have caused some doubts. After all, the PM has just reversed at top speed from two of his most trusted advisors.
7. To be effective, the negotiating team needs to have absolute belief in the PM’s position. Do they still? To the same extent? I doubt it. And this reverse fits very neatly into the u turn narrative.
8. Whether the impacts are intended or not (it could well be just a continuation of the pattern of bad decision making) no Brexit supporter should be happy that all of this is happening at the denouement of the negotiations. The timing is bizarre.
9. Let’s turn to the actual decision to be made. We can already surmise there’s been some softening of HMG’s position (the change in the PM’s rhetoric, various recent opinion columns...). But we also know that’s not enough. Further unpalatable compromise will be needed.
10. Of course, it is the PM’s decision. But who, as they say, is in the room? Without personalising the situation, let’s assume there are two factions present.
11. The first are the ideological Brexiteers. The basis of their belief is that almost any means justifies the end. The second group are the compromisers who worry more about the economy and the impact on Scottish independence.
13. The implosion means that the ideological group has just lost two of its most influential voices. Does that impact the decision materially? I have no idea. But it will impact the decision to some extent...I mean who is now making the case for national tech champions...
14. Of course, everyone in government, the negotiating team etc will swear blind that the implosion has no impact on the negotiations. And rightly so. That’s their job.
15. But how do they know? Because they’ve been told. Great. Only one person really knows and what’s going on in his head? No one seems to know.
Anyway, on verra. /ends
Anyway, on verra. /ends
