1/7 Thread. Below are the total votes cast in all Voting Districts for the 95 by-elections this week, vs the exact same VDs in the 2019 election. By that measure, the ANC vote share declined by 7.8 percentage points and the DA by 0.8; the EFF increased by 0.3 and the FF+ by 2.4.

2/7 Below is a selection of media headlines, following the by-election results. Sure, the DA lost some support and a number of wards. But -0.8 is not -7.8 and to suggest, if there is a crisis, it is the DA’s and the DA’s alone is typical of SA’s media poor analysis and bias.

3/7 This is not to downplay the DA’s losses. Losing 9 wards is significant. And a drop of 0.8 comes on the back of its 2019 decline. But, let’s be clear, whatever the DA’s problems (and it has a few) they are absolutely nothing compare to what happened to the ANC this week.

4/7 The categorical loser overall was the ANC. -7.8 is a significant decline. But the results were never framed this way, for two reasons: poor analysis from online “experts” (“Stable to up for the ANC in aggregate”) and the 9 wards the DA lost, which distracted.

5/7 It’s amazing that media by-election analysis is so myopic. This is how the ANC gets away with murder. It lost serious support, but it is not just overlooked, even excused (“passes test”, “holds ground”). All pressure on DA to explain a 0.8 loss. ANC has to explain nothing.

6/7 Interestingly, Ipsos brought out some numbers this week. There are limits to these numbers (they not registered voters for example), but the methodology is consistent. It shows some small growth for the DA (+3 November to September), and serious decline for the ANC (-5).

7/7 So that ANC decline reflected elsewhere too. But you can be fairly sure that is not what will be reported.