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a good visual & thread on why a player's Max Exit Velocity is the most important characteristic for having success on batted balls
Trout v Freeman
Freeman is far above MLB avg for his Attack Ang and Squaring up balls
Trout is below Avg (at least for most of his MLB career) 1/
Trout v Freeman
Freeman is far above MLB avg for his Attack Ang and Squaring up balls
Trout is below Avg (at least for most of his MLB career) 1/
Yet Trout has the higher career xwOBAcon (.499 vs .477)
why? bc Freeman has lg Avg Max Exit Velo
meanwhile Trout has top 10th percentile Max Exit Velo
why is having a Max Exit Velocity so valuable?
look at the scatter chart
2/
why? bc Freeman has lg Avg Max Exit Velo
meanwhile Trout has top 10th percentile Max Exit Velo
why is having a Max Exit Velocity so valuable?
look at the scatter chart
2/
the orange and especially the red regions are the high wOBA areas
the green line is the highest Exit Velo a player can achieve at the corresponding Launch Ang
the green line is based on the player's career data and is the top 5% Exit Velo for the Launch Ang shown 3/
the green line is the highest Exit Velo a player can achieve at the corresponding Launch Ang
the green line is based on the player's career data and is the top 5% Exit Velo for the Launch Ang shown 3/
where this green line is on this chart will be determined by a player's Max Exit Velo and their Avg Attack Ang (the Avg Launch Ang for top 10% Exit Velocity)
the purple box is drawn based on 92-100% of the Player's Max Exit Velocity & +/- 20 LAng deg from the Avg Attack Ang
4/
the purple box is drawn based on 92-100% of the Player's Max Exit Velocity & +/- 20 LAng deg from the Avg Attack Ang
4/
the more batted balls in this box, the higher the players Sq Up%
so, here's the point: the goal of hitting is to have as many batted balls as possible in the red/orange regions
5/
so, here's the point: the goal of hitting is to have as many batted balls as possible in the red/orange regions
5/
so the more a player's purple box is to the top (higher Max Exit Velo) and to the right (higher Attack Ang) the more batted balls have a chance to be in the red/orange areas
Trout is one of the rare players that has balls outside of the purple box still in the red regions 6/
Trout is one of the rare players that has balls outside of the purple box still in the red regions 6/
this means Trout can "mishit" a ball & be both under the purple box (less than 92% Max Exit Velo) & to the right of the purple box (more than 20 deg from Avg Attack Ang) & yet still land in the red wOBA region
Freeman does not have this "mishit" luxury
see the chart for viz 7/
Freeman does not have this "mishit" luxury
see the chart for viz 7/
and to show this effect at its extremes:
Josh Harrison vs Giancarlo Stanton
you can see as the Max Exit Velo gets lower the opposite effect begins to occur - Squared up balls inside the purple box are falling into routine flyout/unproductive batted ball areas
Josh Harrison vs Giancarlo Stanton
you can see as the Max Exit Velo gets lower the opposite effect begins to occur - Squared up balls inside the purple box are falling into routine flyout/unproductive batted ball areas
