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THE AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2020: FACTS, DISPUTES, AND DELUSIONS - A THREAD
1. It’s natural that President Trump and his supporters are shell-shocked by the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election which,according to the vote tallies confirmed (but not yet formally
1. It’s natural that President Trump and his supporters are shell-shocked by the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election which,according to the vote tallies confirmed (but not yet formally
2. certified) so far, as well as media projections and “calls” on the basis of the vote count, he has lost to Joseph R. Biden. It can’t be pleasant for any candidate to lose an election, let alone one with Trump’s well known temperament and personality. His favorite word for his
3. political opponents is “loser”. It must hurt and strain the limits of his relationship with facts, truths, and reality (always controversial even at the best of times) to be put into the same bucket by the outcome of an election which, in its 2016 edition, made him the winner.
4. I am doing this thread, which will seek to state FACTS as opposed to opinions, because of the strong interest in Nigeria in the outcome of this election and comments by some disappointed Trump fans on Nigerian Twitter who appear to be quite divorced from facts and reality.
5. The two main issues are: (a) is Biden the “President-Elect” of the US when the elections have not been formally certified by state electoral authorities (elections in America are supervised by state and local authorities, not the federal government); (b) legal disputes based
6. on allegations of “fraud” or irregularities. On (a) Biden is, as a matter of fact, the President-Elect of the United States. He is so because, based on votes counted (and with a tiny number of votes still being counted) in all the states of the US, he won the election.
7. He won all the states Hilary Clinton won in 2016, and in addition won FIVE states she lost (and which Trump won in 2016) as well as the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska. These states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump won all these states
8. in 2016 and overall won 306 electoral college votes (minimum required is 270). Biden flipped back these states this year plus others his party retained, and won the election with exactly 306 projected electoral votes to Trump’s 232, the exact tally in 2016 in favor of Trump.
9. Election results are “called” and projected by the media in the US based on ACTUAL vote tallies and projections of outstanding voting outcomes. This has been a tradition for at least 70 years. It is respected by all the political parties contesting. The formal certification,
10. as well as the formal casting of ballots of votes by the Electors of the Electoral College, are formalities and legal requirements, but do not prevent the winner of the vote counts in presidential elections from being formally addressed (and even recognized by law) as
11. President-Elect. The incumbent president remains so until 12 noon on January 20 under American law. By 2.30 a.m. on November 8, 2016, the Associates Press, CNN and other media had called the presidential election for Donald Trump on the very same basis set out above.
12. Within an hour Mrs. Clinton, who had expected and had been widely expected to win, placed a concession phone call to President-Elect Trump. Within a couple of days President Barack Obama invited Trump to the White House for the traditional “transition meeting” between the
13. incumbent president and the incoming one. Presidential transitions in America are governed by law, the Presidential Transition Act of 1963. While President Trump is under no obligation to phone President-Elect and formally concede the election (it’s a tradition not a legal
14. requirement), Trump and his administration are bound by law to comply with the Presidential Transition Act. He has deliberately refused to do so and accord Biden and his incoming administration the cooperation required by the PTA. This includes funding for transition
15. activities,office space, intelligence briefings for the President and Vice-President- Elect respectively. These steps are required regardless of legal challenges to voting outcomes because,obviously, if a legal challenge were to succeed in changing the outcome of the election
16. then the matter becomes moot naturally. In fact, under the PTA the transition process begins in ernest SIX months before the elections. Recognizing that the outcome of a presidential electoral election can’t be known in advance at that time, the candidates nominate
17. representatives to the Presidential Transition Council. However, immediately after the presidential election the General Services Administration, the designated office to manage presidential transitions, is required to “ascertain” the outcome of the election. This is a
18. procedure that normally does not wait for even formal certification of results (which take a few weeks after then election) let alone the formal vote by electors in the electoral college. In this instant the GSA Administrator, appointed by President Trump,has as yet declined
19. to “ascertain “ the election outcome. It’s never been the case in recent history that all votes in US presidential elections are finally counted by the end of the day of the election, again, hence the “calling” and projections based on advanced counting outcomes and voting
20. patterns of outstanding locations of votes. Yet, the PTA requires that within two days after the election “the President-Elect and Vice-President Elect” have to be furnished with transition offices. So much for the transition process and its legal framework.
21. On (b) Trump &his supporters have made wild and widespread claims of “fraud” and voter irregularities as his excuse for refusing to concede to Biden. He has mounted numerous lawsuits challenging the results, especially in the “swing states” such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and
22. Wisconsin. These lawsuits have fared uniformly poorly, have so far been unsuccessful, and in several cases have been literally laughed out of court by judges (including those appointed by Republican presidents).This is because the cases have not presented substantive evidence
23. to back up claims of widespread fraud or even irregularities, let alone of a scale that can materially affect the outcome of the elections. Lawyers of all political persuasions, Republican and Democrat, have assessed these lawsuits as having no chance of overturning the vote
24. in the courts. Biden won in too many states, and with margins too significant, that he hit the “magic” 270 electoral college votes through several pathways. America is not Nigeria. The FACT is that voter or electoral fraud in America is very extremely rare and isolated, and
25. there is NO established case or incident of organized or widespread electoral fraud in contemporary memory. No election official would want to go to jail for several years for such a crime. Given the margins of Biden’s win (tens of thousands) in the five states he flipped,
26. it’s almost impossible for any recount to reverse the outcome even in one state, let alone several. And, even more stark, election officials in all the five states Trump is contesting (including Republican election officials in Georgia and Arizona) have made clear there was
27. foul play and challenged anyone alleging to provide proof. Conspiracy theories on videos and social media are no proof and several of them have been debunked in closer scrutiny. Christopher Krebs, Director the US Dept of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure
28. Agency, as well as a coalition of federal and state election security officials said yesterday in a formal statement that the Nov. 3 presidential election was the most secure in US history. So President’s own government are now repudiating his bogus claims. It’s that bad!
29. So why is Trump peddling these damaging but baseless claims? Your guess is as good as mine, but his followers and supporters are having a problem coping with the reality that he has lost and will leave the White House in January 20.
30. That’s as certain as the sun rising tomorrow morning. The American people have spoken with their votes, and no one should think the US is a country where the President or anyone is above the law, or entertain the delusion that it can easily become a “democratic dictatorship”.
31. Trump is entitled to his day in court if he wishes, but the facts and the law are evidently not on his side. He has zero chance of hanging on to the presidency. The sooner his followers take a cold shower and stop spreading or swallowing fake news and propaganda, the better.
32. #Ends
