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Please take care. COVID risks are very high right now.
There were 1 million new COVID cases in the U.S. in the last 7 days. That's 10% of the total U.S. cases since January, just in the last 7 days. https://twitter.com/DrIanWeissman/status/1327085324892319747
There were 1 million new COVID cases in the U.S. in the last 7 days. That's 10% of the total U.S. cases since January, just in the last 7 days. https://twitter.com/DrIanWeissman/status/1327085324892319747
Please, please take care of yourself.
This has been a very difficult year, and the upcoming holidays are important to so many people. Being a long distance from people we love is awful.
Can I share with you the idea of a risk budget?
This has been a very difficult year, and the upcoming holidays are important to so many people. Being a long distance from people we love is awful.
Can I share with you the idea of a risk budget?
A risk budget, in finance or tech reliability or security, is the idea that we can take on a little risk here and there, but it all adds up. The budget is a limit to our maximum total risk we accept.
If we take on small risks in many places, our risk accumulates to high risk.
If we take on small risks in many places, our risk accumulates to high risk.
So maybe I go to the grocery store, quickly and with a mask, low risk. I take a short, masked walk with a friend, low risk. I eat at an outdoor restaurant with friends, medium-high risk.
Put that all together, probably with assorted other risks, and that's definitely high risk.
Put that all together, probably with assorted other risks, and that's definitely high risk.
So I budget my risk. If I want or have to do something higher risk, I can't take other risks.
If a plumber fixes something and I get groceries and go for a walk, that's my risk budget, time to stay home.
If a plumber fixes something and I get groceries and go for a walk, that's my risk budget, time to stay home.
Let's say that you want to go out just for a short snack outdoors at a restaurant with a friend, masked when you aren't eating.
That is 100% of your weekly risk budget. You may not take ANY other risks for the entire week. No groceries, no working outside the home, no walkies.
That is 100% of your weekly risk budget. You may not take ANY other risks for the entire week. No groceries, no working outside the home, no walkies.
Plane flights? Indoor unmasked hangout with someone not in your household? Socially distanced and masked outdoor music event? These are ALL outside of your risk budget. 
Try building your own risk budget at https://www.microcovid.org/
h/t @ataner
Try building your own risk budget at https://www.microcovid.org/
h/t @ataner
I wish we had stronger, united leadership, and better infrastructure, and testing, and supplies. I wish we had risk-aware plans that matched the risk we're experiencing.
We don't. It's not your fault this is happening, but you can help reduce risk for the people around you.
We don't. It's not your fault this is happening, but you can help reduce risk for the people around you.
Something that is even harder to explain: different people have different risk budgets.
E.g., people at high risk of serious illness from COVID have low risk budgets.
Like threat models, your risk budget chooses you.
E.g., people at high risk of serious illness from COVID have low risk budgets.
Like threat models, your risk budget chooses you.
You may have a low risk budget if you live with someone who is at high risk and thus has a low risk budget.
You don't choose the risk budget. You choose the risks you take.
You don't choose the risk budget. You choose the risks you take.
You also don't choose all of the risks that you are exposed to.
If a plumber comes to fix something, I don't know what risks they take, they don't know their roommates' risks and so on.
If a plumber comes to fix something, I don't know what risks they take, they don't know their roommates' risks and so on.
Be patient and be kind with yourself and with everyone. This is awful, it's exhausting, & no one has zero risk.
You have a choice about some of the risks you take for self-care. Prioritize caring for yourself & for others. Be risk aware, find your balance, and find your budget.
You have a choice about some of the risks you take for self-care. Prioritize caring for yourself & for others. Be risk aware, find your balance, and find your budget.
It can be frustrating to see or talk with people who take risks differently.
Bring compassion: we don't know what pressures they experience, such as someone staying home at high risk or knowingly exceeding their risk budget for self-care.
Bring compassion: we don't know what pressures they experience, such as someone staying home at high risk or knowingly exceeding their risk budget for self-care.
Approach people who make different risk choices with compassion. Ask what they need, and respond with empathy.
Sometimes they may not understand the risks they are taking, but it's more likely that we don't understand their precautions and risk budget. http://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/psychologists-say-pandemic-shaming-not-effective-in-changing-behavior-05-16-2020
Sometimes they may not understand the risks they are taking, but it's more likely that we don't understand their precautions and risk budget. http://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/psychologists-say-pandemic-shaming-not-effective-in-changing-behavior-05-16-2020
