Thread on post poll scenario in Bihar.
1-Nitish Kumar lost bargaining power permanently,now he can donothing but to remain with BJP because only BJP assures him CM chair at least now.
2-This election has increased inter caste fault line.

RJD supporters are very much charged and agreesive on ground,so according to my wisdom Tejaswi won't take so much risk to cosy up with Nitish.
3-Manjhi and VIP has no future if they leave NDA,most of MLA of both parties are ex JDU and ex BJP men so you can

see defection if Manjhi and Mukesh want to go with MGB.
3-Congress is in huge trouble,it has divided in http://3-4groups.One  group is under Bhagalpur man,another under Patna-Magadh man third is caste group of Brahamin and forth is religious group.

All 19congress mlas are poachable but they won't go in a single time,they will defect according to their convenience in JDU and BJP.
4-Left won't agree to include AIMIM in MGB and it's blunder for RJD if it tries to because in that case RJD loose seemanchal permanently

Tirhut and Mithila gave NDA clear majority and BJP has both young as well as experienced faces in Mithila so as per my wisdom,if BJP change it's dycm ,he will be from Mithila.

In RJD too many MLAs can be poached because of caste equation.
Overall It will be NDA government with new flavor will take oath and chances of reoccurring of 2017are very slim.