What's going on in #Ethiopia? Read this thread for a simplified explanation of a complex subject

On Nov 4, the Ethiopian federal army began a military offensive against the #TPLF, the ruling party in the northern #Tigray regional state. Trouble had been brewing for years.

1991-2012: The TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front) and a coalition of resistance groups overthrow the Derg government. They form the 4-party EPRDF coalition.

Eritrea promised independence by TPLF in return for EPLF (Eritrea) supporting fight against Derg.

PM Meles Zenawi (TPLF) takes power. His rule is unapologetically authoritarian but sees rapid development of the country.

Border clashes in 1998 between #Eritrea and Tigray sees previously close relationship turn sour (remember this!).

PM Meles Zenawi implements federal states with regions based on ethnic groups (see map).

Note: Ethiopia was not always a single country, historically divided into tribes and empires. Modern-day Ethiopia is the territory consolidated under Emperor Menelik (an ethnic Amhara).

2012-2018: PM Meles dies suddenly and PM Hailemariam Desalegn takes office. An unremarkable tenure, massive protests by Oromo and Amhara opposition lead to his resignation.

PM Abiy Ahmed takes power. An Oromo with an Amhara wife, he was backed by the 2 largest ethnic groups.

2018-Present: PM Abiy Ahmed's first term is marked by ethnic violence across the #Oromia region as 1.5 million forced from homes by ethnic violence.

Hundreds of Amharas and opposition Oromos are killed by Oromo separatist groups, instigated by media personality Jawar Mohamed.

Note: While most Oromos want to stay in Ethiopia, frustrations over historical persecution have grown into separatist movements.

These groups believe that the Orthodox Church and the historically richer Amhara and Tigrayan people had taken advantage of the Oromo people.

The TPLF are accused of funding the attacks and road blocks by separatist groups (see: OLF Shene, Qeerroo). Their motive? To destabilise the country and take back power.

People accuse PM Abiy of not being harsh on the separatists while others say he is siding with Amharas.

PM Abiy Ahmed shakes up state to disrupt TPLF power structure. Abiy targets Tigrays in top positions still loyal to TPLF. Growing anger from Tigrays who claim ethnic prejudice.

Note: Over 27 years, the TPLF consolidated wealth, influence and military power.

An attempt to move away from ethnic politics, Abiy forms the Prosperity Party merging 3 of the 4 parties in the EPRDF: ODP (Oromo), ADP (Amhara) and SEPDM (Southern).

The 4th party is TPLF (Tigray) who decide to run as opposition. Some Oromos also disagree and leave the party.

Covid means elections are delayed from Aug 2020 to 2021. TPLF claim Abiy's term is over and hold elections against executive order.

Government refuses to recognise results while TPLF reject Abiy's government. With trouble brewing, Abiy silently mobilises army to Tigray border.

On Nov 3, the Ethiopian army claimed the TPLF raided its Northern Command (HQ: Mekelle, capital of Tigray). It is claimed that a Tigrayan loyalist faction within the army supported the 3 am base raid.

On Nov 4, the Ethiopian army launched a military operation against the TPLF.

TPLF was designated a terrorist organisation. The government shut down electricity and telecoms in the region and all flights to northern airports were grounded.

The Ethiopian Air Force then began a bombing campaign, taking out missile bases near Mekelle, Tigrayan capital.

Now remember how EPLF and TPLF hate each other? Abiy's first success in office was ending the Ethio-Eritrean war (see: Nobel Peace Price).

With newly forged ties, Pres. Isaias Afewerki has supported Abiy in the north. Some say that the two planned it together for months.

Mechanised units quickly captured territory as federal forces took Humera and its strategic airport following an intense firefight. But tragedy followed.

As it became clear Humera was lost, retreating TPLF and militia fighters massacred 100s of ethnic Amharas in nearby Mykadra.

Note: Ethiopia's Empires were ruled by constantly warring emperors of Amhara (Tewodros, Menelik, H/Selassie) and Tigray (Yohannes) origin.

Recent border conflicts (see: Wolkait, a historically Amhara area made Tigray by TPLF) have seen increasing tensions between the 2 regions.

By Nov 13, federal forces have surrounded Mekelle having captured towns across the west and north of the Tigray region, as far as Aksum and Adigrat.

Meanwhile, the federal police have arrested 32 military officers and 64 civilians, believed to be high-ranking members of TPLF.

It seems that PM Abiy Ahmed has the TPLF on its last legs. Earlier this week he tweeted "The sun is setting for the Junta."

Mekelle could change hands within days. Abiy has already established a provisional government for the region, lead by Chief Executive Dr Mulu Nega.

For many, Abiy finally acted decisively after months of hesitation.

Some say he may have been awarded a Nobel Peace Price too early.

Or was it an inevitable series of events set in motion when Meles Zenawi made Ethiopia an ethnofederal state?

What do you think?