Read on Twitter
On 11/3 I Tweeted a thread comparing Colorado to Ireland and expressing hope that Colorado's numbers would peak soon as had Ireland's.
That did not happen. Why didn't we peak in the same timeframe as Ireland?
1/8
That did not happen. Why didn't we peak in the same timeframe as Ireland?
1/8
Many will say it's because Ireland locked down again. But lockdowns can't have an immediate effect because of the lag between infection, symptoms and testing. Look at Belgium: their cases had peaked and were on the way down before their latest lockdowns.
2/8
2/8
Quick note: between countries and between states in US, there are differences in testing parameters, quantity, and definitions of cases so looking at absolute numbers may be misleading. This is why I am concentrating on curve shapes.
3/8
3/8
In my earlier tweet asking for patience & pointing to Ireland to support the idea Colorado will peak soon, I said that Colorado needs to hold on and not lock down. I stand by that assertion based on what's happening around the world.
In contrast...
4/8 https://twitter.com/Dierenbach/status/1323630828690247681?s=20
In contrast...
4/8 https://twitter.com/Dierenbach/status/1323630828690247681?s=20
This is what Colorado modelers are predicting. Trying to scare you into giving up freedom. We're not worst place in world for Covid. Remain calm, we'll get through this.
Modelers predict 74,043 new symptomatic infections/day if we 65% social distance and have fun on Xmas.
5/8
Modelers predict 74,043 new symptomatic infections/day if we 65% social distance and have fun on Xmas.
5/8
Why do I say they're trying to scare us? This graph shows modelers symptomatic cases prediction against the same graph above showing CO, Ireland and Belgium ON THE SAME SCALE. It's ridiculous, but it's what 74,043 Colorado infections/day (12,766 per million) would look like.
6/8
6/8
But wait, there's more. Those are predicted symptomatic cases which are 40% of total cases predicted by CO modelers. So total cases would be 185,107/day (31,915/million) and on our graph, it would look like this. Yes, that's our current situation way down there at bottom.
7/8
7/8
So while it's clear we haven't peaked in CO on same timeline as Ireland or Belgium, I still believe those country's experiences tell us we're near a peak & we should stay the course and not lock down. I also still believe Colorado modelers are absurd
8/8 https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/13/insane-model-means-colorados-covid-19-policies-are-essentially-based-on-tarot-cards/
8/8 https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/13/insane-model-means-colorados-covid-19-policies-are-essentially-based-on-tarot-cards/
