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China's growing bomber fleet?
A little over 2 years ago, I put up this thread about China's fleet of H-6 bombers. Counting them using open-source imagery, I determined that they numbered almost 200, more than the 150 or so of most open-source estimates. https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1034926013237665792
A little over 2 years ago, I put up this thread about China's fleet of H-6 bombers. Counting them using open-source imagery, I determined that they numbered almost 200, more than the 150 or so of most open-source estimates. https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1034926013237665792
Since then, China has continued production of new variants of the H-6 series, including the maritime strike-focused H-6J and the hypersonic missile-launching H-6N.
As I've discussed here before, the H-6J - armed with the long-range, supersonic YJ-12 anti-ship missile - is a potent & dedicated maritime strike bomber, flown by the air arm of the PLA Navy - the PLANAF. https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1047536888112930816
The H-6N is an interesting new development, able to be refueled in air (a first for the H-6 series) and apparently capable of launching a boosted hypersonic glide vehicle, though it's unclear if that missile is intended for ship or land targets (or both). https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/10/19/video-reveals-chinese-h-6n-bomber-carrying-suspected-hypersonic-weapon/
China's heavy aircraft factory has certainly been busy building H-6s & Y-20 transport aircraft, with plenty of new aircraft visible in imagery. What's been unclear is whether China's bomber force is growing, or whether they are just replacing older bombers with upgraded versions.
It's been a while since the last time I counted H-6s, so I figured now might be a good time to go see what updated imagery might be out there, and whether the number of fielded H-6s had changed much.
It turns out...it looks like it has.
It turns out...it looks like it has.
By my count, over the last two or so years China's bomber force appears to have grown by more than 15%, to just over 230 aircraft.
This count uses imagery that at some locations is a bit dated (1-2 yrs), so the numbers may have grown some since then (or could have dropped, too).
This count uses imagery that at some locations is a bit dated (1-2 yrs), so the numbers may have grown some since then (or could have dropped, too).
In addition, China has a couple of new/refurb H-6 bases, which have large shelters for their H-6s, so there may be more H-6s that I could not count as they may have been under cover.
More here on those new bases: https://www.scramble.nl/military-news/upgraded-plaaf-air-bases-for-xian-h-6-bombers
Big disclaimer: this is not refined intel; I am not an imagery analyst & have only episodic shots to look at. It's entirely possible that some of the aircraft I counted could have been in one shot one day & repositioned to another field where I saw them again later.
All I can say is that my method of counting was consistent with the last time. And if you look at the "change" column in the chart above - how many more/fewer aircraft I counted at each spot - it doesn't look like any entire regiment (12-18 aircraft) moved & got counted twice.
As a reminder, China has the only operating bomber production line in the world.
While the USAF has the B-21 bomber under development, its deployment remains years away. Until then, the generations-old B-1 and B-52 fleets will continue to soldier on. https://www.minot.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/264580/three-generations-of-b-52-airmen/
While the USAF has the B-21 bomber under development, its deployment remains years away. Until then, the generations-old B-1 and B-52 fleets will continue to soldier on. https://www.minot.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/264580/three-generations-of-b-52-airmen/
As another reminder, we also learned this year that China's PLA Rocket Force appears to have deployed *hundreds* of new DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles: https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1303435692068999168
And also that the PLA Navy is now the world's largest navy by numbers, and continues to build capable, blue-ocean warships at a breakneck pace: https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1306311601968955394
But I'm sure this is all normal, ho-hum stuff for a nation with a growing economy and a few local tensions with its neighbors: https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1324446091765551106
As I've said before, winter is indeed coming.
Fin.
Fin.
