Gonna start doing this weekly

UFC RDA/Felder thoughts

Felder/RDA: Hard to get behind RDA after he looked maximum old against Chiesa. Probably would be playing Felder at +160 if he had an actual camp.

As-is probably a good livebet fight, good chance of a split decision. RDA pre-2020'd be confident bet territory, but after Chiesa nah

Safarov/Marquez: Christmas is ruined.

Safarov busier/more takedowny. IMO there was pretty good value on both the GTD & Safarov ML since it's likely he'd have landed more shots and both guys are pretty damned durable.

Alhassan/Williams: Williams was +300 against Morono for a reason, though Alhassan live to cardio death.

Taken some very small shots at the GTD, since I think if it makes it past a round and a half there's gonna be a gassy shitshow.

Also possible 'technical Alhassan' happens.

Alhassan should at some point nuke him out, but it's just hard to play him at even this sort of price since there's so many clear, ugly holes in his process.

McKenna-Hansen: Looks like the season-ending fight for a Young Adult drama set in a secret New England Fight Club in a prestigious girls academy.

McKenna better formed as a fighter, but Hansen might have her athletically. Think McKenna's better striking/wrestling but

Hansen athletic edge (again, I might be judging McKenna harshly for looking like a 12 year old) and noodly grappling might make 'Hansen via stupid guard pull sub' a consistent outcome.

Fight IQ against Demo was promising for McKenna, though.

Arroyo/Anders: Probably comes down to Anders' wrestling willingness, and historically Anders' wrestling willingness doesn't tend to follow any sort of opponent-based trajectory.

GTD -140 solid, though I was big on GTD Jotko-Anders & I think Arroyo presents more finish threat

Mayes/Martinez: Annoyed I miss the over 1.5 at the original ridiculous prices. Possibly the biggest difference in lean body mass in recent UFC history. Martinez could likely make MW.

Mayes flake enough wouldn't want him at -250 (Martinez boxcar Homer superpowers) but

Mayes should really be able to win this one unless it turns into a hilarious, gassy HW shitshow.

Allen-Strickland: Brendan Allen is bad at the mixing of the martial arts. Passed on Heinisch, but happy to hit Strickland with medium confidence as Strickland's game is a lot better defined than Heinisch's.

Strickland should be able to tee-off standing, grappling is competitive

Size is a bit of a concern, but I feel that Allen's hit a high-roll so far in his UFC run and not sure I'd take him as a fav in reruns of any of his UFC wins.

Also Allen major orbital damage/supposedly year-ending facial surgery like 4 months ago?

Yoder-Granger: Line seems absurd. Yoder's been having gritty split decs with decent UFC women, Granger's got fuck all in the way of TDD and I don't think she's gonna be able to fish out a guard sub with any real clip.

Standing the fight'll be competitive. Yoder should be fav

Morono-McKee: Morono should really have him covered skill-wise everywhere, but Morono's a D+ athlete and might be getting a bit chinny. Both should be able to get their offense off freely, but concerned they're both tough and neither's really an elite finisher against good comp

Else would be looking at the ends ITD. Morono ITD not a bad spot, though.

Quinonez-Smolka: I liked Smolka's iteration against Casey Kenney, way more pressuring than usual and always nice to see people go to the body.

Concerning that his previously-incredible durability seems to be fading, but Quin not much of a finishing threat.

IMO line's about right as a whole. Smolka probably more upside, but also can inherently get sloppy.

Murata-Markos: Not really sure how people are arriving at -200 Murata. She's a small WSW, Markos has made the vast majority of her fights split decisiony outside of the absolute divisional elite. Always hesitant about WMMA Japanese imports since their WSW scene trends Atomweight

Murata likely takedown upside, but not sure how confident I am in her being able to consolidate nice shots into meaningful top control or minute-winning. Markos hard to hold down, and Murata's very raw just about everywhere else.

Freitas-Gravely: Got on the Freitas Bus early at like +162. Pass at current pricing. Gravely should have the proactive minute-winning upside with his wrestling, but Freitas pretty good everywhere and generally vengeful.

Freitas NSC at +100 is value at current pricing.