Read on Twitter
1/15
What is the current status of #Shushi?
Well ambiguous, according to the "agreement" it's part of #Azerbaijan, but in reality, now Russian "peacekeeping" forces entered the outskirts of the city, & surrounded by #Armenian forces, Azerbaijani forces are trapped:
What is the current status of #Shushi?
Well ambiguous, according to the "agreement" it's part of #Azerbaijan, but in reality, now Russian "peacekeeping" forces entered the outskirts of the city, & surrounded by #Armenian forces, Azerbaijani forces are trapped:
2/15
Today, Az officially asked the Russian Defense Ministry to provide them with a corridor to Shushi. Russia has not responded yet. Today, General Rustam Muradov Commander of Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh met with the Pres #Artsakh which infuriated the Azerbaijani side.
Today, Az officially asked the Russian Defense Ministry to provide them with a corridor to Shushi. Russia has not responded yet. Today, General Rustam Muradov Commander of Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh met with the Pres #Artsakh which infuriated the Azerbaijani side.
3/15
(This is a de facto recognition of Artsakh authorities by the Russian side, at least for now). Moreover, Russian state media, Sputnik, published a video showing the deployment of Russian heavy artillery and BM-21 Grad MRLS in Lachin and the surrounding areas.
(This is a de facto recognition of Artsakh authorities by the Russian side, at least for now). Moreover, Russian state media, Sputnik, published a video showing the deployment of Russian heavy artillery and BM-21 Grad MRLS in Lachin and the surrounding areas.
4/15
I have seen another video about the deployment of Russian attack helicopters in Stepanagerd airport. While the agreement only mentioned that Russia was going to deploy light armors and foot soldiers.
Coming back to #Shushi, 3 scenarios can be suggested:
I have seen another video about the deployment of Russian attack helicopters in Stepanagerd airport. While the agreement only mentioned that Russia was going to deploy light armors and foot soldiers.
Coming back to #Shushi, 3 scenarios can be suggested:
5/15
1- Either the Arm side provides a corridor to Shushi, in return, it renegotiates to gain something. (2 days ago Rus media published maps saying the Armenian side has given villages in the Tavush region to Az, Arm FM denied, today Rus denied while Az keeps insisting).
1- Either the Arm side provides a corridor to Shushi, in return, it renegotiates to gain something. (2 days ago Rus media published maps saying the Armenian side has given villages in the Tavush region to Az, Arm FM denied, today Rus denied while Az keeps insisting).
6/15
Here, Armenia can push the issue of the Meghry corridor or if clever enough question the status of Shushi and gain time and push the Azerbaijani soldiers to starve and pressure Aliyev to compromise.
Here, Armenia can push the issue of the Meghry corridor or if clever enough question the status of Shushi and gain time and push the Azerbaijani soldiers to starve and pressure Aliyev to compromise.
7/15
2-Russia declares Shushi a no-mans land and declares that its status will be declared after final agreement on the legal status of Artsakh. That is Azerbaijanis will have to withdraw from a temporary corridor opened by the Armenian troops.
2-Russia declares Shushi a no-mans land and declares that its status will be declared after final agreement on the legal status of Artsakh. That is Azerbaijanis will have to withdraw from a temporary corridor opened by the Armenian troops.
8/15
3- Russian troops enter the center of Shushi and declare it an open city. Here, Yerevan and Stepanagerd would not have a choice but to push the right of return of Armenian refugees back to Shushi.
3- Russian troops enter the center of Shushi and declare it an open city. Here, Yerevan and Stepanagerd would not have a choice but to push the right of return of Armenian refugees back to Shushi.
9/15
If Az raises the issue of return of Azs back to the city and in case of possible strife between the 2 comm then, Russia would not have a choice, but to establish a military rule in the city. On paper/theory, Shushi would be an Azi city but in reality, it would be a Rus rule.
If Az raises the issue of return of Azs back to the city and in case of possible strife between the 2 comm then, Russia would not have a choice, but to establish a military rule in the city. On paper/theory, Shushi would be an Azi city but in reality, it would be a Rus rule.
10/15
Azerbaijan has only one solution and that is to build a road through a hellish gorge from Hadrut and that would take months.
This is why I wrote on FB. today, that the Armenian leadership (whether the current or the future but very soon) needs Machievelian diplomacy.
Azerbaijan has only one solution and that is to build a road through a hellish gorge from Hadrut and that would take months.
This is why I wrote on FB. today, that the Armenian leadership (whether the current or the future but very soon) needs Machievelian diplomacy.
11/15
Yes, we can change the status of Shushi to our favor. Sometimes defeat can be transformed into a "victory". There are many hist cases such as from the Ottoman defeat to Ataturk's victory which was done by Machiavelian diplomacy; engaging between Bolsheviks& British/French.
Yes, we can change the status of Shushi to our favor. Sometimes defeat can be transformed into a "victory". There are many hist cases such as from the Ottoman defeat to Ataturk's victory which was done by Machiavelian diplomacy; engaging between Bolsheviks& British/French.
12/15
Today, Arm has the opportunity to turn the tied, France has clearly declared its reservation on the agreement but supported the end of war. US and #France are not happy with Russia's military intervention, #Russia barely saved herself and stopped a complete Turkish victory,
Today, Arm has the opportunity to turn the tied, France has clearly declared its reservation on the agreement but supported the end of war. US and #France are not happy with Russia's military intervention, #Russia barely saved herself and stopped a complete Turkish victory,
13/15
Iran has been isolated and "put out from the game". Turkey, satisfied by concerned, Azerbaijani officials are excited, but the people and the opposition on social media are publicly announcing their fears and talking about the Rus planted "time bomb" in #SouthernCaucasus.
Iran has been isolated and "put out from the game". Turkey, satisfied by concerned, Azerbaijani officials are excited, but the people and the opposition on social media are publicly announcing their fears and talking about the Rus planted "time bomb" in #SouthernCaucasus.
14/15
What remains to defeated Armenia is to gather its strength, (I personally would favor PM Nikol Pashniyan's departure and the appointment of someone from the My Step block a bit close to Russia but can also build bridges with Iran, EU, and the US), ..
What remains to defeated Armenia is to gather its strength, (I personally would favor PM Nikol Pashniyan's departure and the appointment of someone from the My Step block a bit close to Russia but can also build bridges with Iran, EU, and the US), ..
15/15
get out of this trauma and come back to the table with a united front. To have this, we need domestic stability and trust. It is not too late but time is not on our side.
#Russia #Shushi #Armenia #Artsakh #NagornoKarabakh #Azerbaijan #geopolitics #SouthCaucasus
get out of this trauma and come back to the table with a united front. To have this, we need domestic stability and trust. It is not too late but time is not on our side.
#Russia #Shushi #Armenia #Artsakh #NagornoKarabakh #Azerbaijan #geopolitics #SouthCaucasus
