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In this editorial, @WSJopinion asks what I have learned about COVID since the spring. I'm on paternity leave but thought it worth answering. /thread https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-bidens-lockdown-lobby-11605223647?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
Since June 1, another 130,000 Americans have died from COVID, bringing the current total to around 235,000. Around a thousand Americans are dying each day, yet we seem to be shrugging our shoulders. /2
Contrast that with 9/11 when 3,000 Americans were killed. We were outraged and it led to a massive response. Why the difference? Why aren't we outraged now? I don't know. /3
Since the spring, we’ve learned that elementary schools don’t appear to be major sources of spread, while bars and restaurants are. Yet, in much of the country, bars and restaurants are open and schools are closed. Why? /4
Health professionals appear to have learned how to better treat COVID and achieve better health outcomes, which is great. But 1,000 Americans are still dying every day and deaths lag cases so it seems likely deaths will continue to climb. /5
In fact, IHME currently forecasts 2,200 deaths per day by mid-January. /6 http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/briefing_US_20201112.pdf
In the spring, some people speculated that herd immunity could be achieved at around 20% and pointed to Sweden as a model. With infections soaring in Europe (including Sweden), that is clearly wrong. No country appears close to achieving herd immunity. /7
By the way, how’s it going in Sweden? /8 https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-prime-minister-darker-times-covid-pandemic-1546921
I’ve sometimes thought if people understand the risks they are taking, then that’s fine. They can go to bars and weddings and bear any consequences. But in economics parlance, there are externalities: spread and hospital capacity. /9
First, we’ve learned that a lot of COVID spread comes from asymptomatic cases: people unknowingly spread it to friends and family. So they aren’t just risking their own health, but the health of those they contact. /10
Second, if people take risks and get COVID, they put health workers at risk who have to treat them, and if they use up hospital capacity, that affects all of us if we can’t get treatment for other illnesses. /11 https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/third-surge-breaking-healthcare-workers/617091/
The recent vaccine news from Pfizer is very good. In the spring, experts were cautious whether any vaccine would be effective. Now they are more optimistic multiple vaccines will be effective. That means there can be an actual end to the pandemic. /12
An argument against temporary lockdowns is that once you fully reopen the virus may flare back up again. We and it turns out Europe re-opened too quickly. But that doesn’t have to be true, as countries in Asia have shown. /13
But with effective vaccines on the horizon, the calculus changes dramatically. We are not talking about delaying inevitable COVID deaths. We are talking about avoiding COVID deaths. How many lives are ok to sacrifice until vaccines are widely adopted? /14
As a country we are fortunate to have the resources to save American lives while also protecting the productive capacity of our economy. We don’t have to choose health or economy. /15
In fact, unless we get control of the virus, the economic recovery from here will be muted. The easy gains have been had. Until people are confident it is safe, we won’t truly return to normal. /end
