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An analytical and tactical assessment of Derby County’s season so far.
RTs appreciated.
#dcfc | #dcfcfans
An analytical and tactical assessment of Derby County’s season so far.
RTs appreciated.
#dcfc | #dcfcfans
11 games in, #dcfc are rock bottom of the Championship.
In this thread I will attempt to make some sense of this, outlining aspects of what has gone wrong so far this season.
(I must note that at this stage of the season, the data is still of a small sample size)
In this thread I will attempt to make some sense of this, outlining aspects of what has gone wrong so far this season.
(I must note that at this stage of the season, the data is still of a small sample size)
#dcfc’s chance creation this season has been woeful. Despite having an average total of Expected Goals Against, we sit rock bottom for Expected Goals.
This exposes a gross lack of big chances being created, which is worrying considering the depth we have in midfield areas.
This exposes a gross lack of big chances being created, which is worrying considering the depth we have in midfield areas.
A lot of this stems from #dcfc’s inability to translate possession into a healthy amount of high quality shots.
Despite sitting 7th in the league for passes (per 90), we sit below the league average for shots, and yet have tallied the 6th most shots from outside the box (53).
Despite sitting 7th in the league for passes (per 90), we sit below the league average for shots, and yet have tallied the 6th most shots from outside the box (53).
#dcfc have benefitted from long shots for the past few seasons, but this beneficiary I fear has become a reliance.
A lack of quality chances within the area, namely the 6yd box, is telling of a team lacking creativity in the final third.
A lack of quality chances within the area, namely the 6yd box, is telling of a team lacking creativity in the final third.
Strikers, with a playstyle like Ivan Toney who effortlessly achieve a steady stream of goals, do so by finding themselves within dangerous areas close to goal.
Improvements off the ball to find these pockets of space in the area is entirely coachable.
Improvements off the ball to find these pockets of space in the area is entirely coachable.
#dcfc’s inability to translate possession into shots is pretty evident when looking at the passing style of the side.
Looking at the Cardiff game, we can see a lack of progressive passing, with the midfield rarely looking to break the lines, limiting the front 3’s involvement.
Looking at the Cardiff game, we can see a lack of progressive passing, with the midfield rarely looking to break the lines, limiting the front 3’s involvement.
Off the ball:
In my opinion, one of #dcfc’s biggest weaknesses is when out of possession.
Despite pre-season talk of a higher pressing emphasis, we have the third highest ‘passes allowed per defensive action’ in the league, maintaining #dcfc’s non-existent high press.
In my opinion, one of #dcfc’s biggest weaknesses is when out of possession.
Despite pre-season talk of a higher pressing emphasis, we have the third highest ‘passes allowed per defensive action’ in the league, maintaining #dcfc’s non-existent high press.
When #dcfc have pressed, it has been elementary at best.
In this example, Shinnie steps out to pressure Hoilett, allowing an inverted Ojo run from the right, who eventually assists with a through ball. Mishaps like this make it so much easier to break our midfield line.
In this example, Shinnie steps out to pressure Hoilett, allowing an inverted Ojo run from the right, who eventually assists with a through ball. Mishaps like this make it so much easier to break our midfield line.
#dcfc’s full back situation changed when Lowe and Bogle were sold to Sheffield Utd, but Buchanan and Byrne have replaced them comfortably. They possess very similar ball carrying skills, whilst Buchanan has impressed with his outstanding areal ability.
Talk of full backs always begs the question about formations.
The bottom line for #dcfc this season is that when we have fielded a 4231, we haven’t picked up a single point. The back five gives the team much needed resilience, and the low block plugs any big gaps in our shape.
The bottom line for #dcfc this season is that when we have fielded a 4231, we haven’t picked up a single point. The back five gives the team much needed resilience, and the low block plugs any big gaps in our shape.
Quality and quantity from forwards:
It’s fair to say that #dcfc have talent in the squad, and they are not producing at the level you’d expect them to.
Above, I’ve contextualised the output of Derby’s attacking players within the Championship, and it’s average at best.
It’s fair to say that #dcfc have talent in the squad, and they are not producing at the level you’d expect them to.
Above, I’ve contextualised the output of Derby’s attacking players within the Championship, and it’s average at best.
Rooney is much more effective in central midfield (whether that be as a 6 or a 10 is debatable) due to his passing range.
When played up front, he is far more inefficient. The above viz displays how he's had little involvement within the area, contributing to a lack of shots.
When played up front, he is far more inefficient. The above viz displays how he's had little involvement within the area, contributing to a lack of shots.
Waghorn’s strongest suit is as a striker. Whilst I believe that his creativity has improved under Cocu (he frequently drops deep and wide right), his xG total shows a lack of quality chances.
This is not entirely his fault, but we can see he is taking nowhere near enough shots.
This is not entirely his fault, but we can see he is taking nowhere near enough shots.
The departure of Chris Martin has drastically reduced the amount of creativity and hold up play from the centre forward position.
@LutonAnalytics has produced a great viz that shows Martin as a bit of an outlier compared to other strikers: https://twitter.com/LutonAnalytics/status/1326849295107166209?s=20
@LutonAnalytics has produced a great viz that shows Martin as a bit of an outlier compared to other strikers: https://twitter.com/LutonAnalytics/status/1326849295107166209?s=20
So why have #dcfc struggled with the efficiency of their possession?
This stems largely from the team’s ball progression ability. Bird, Shinnie, and Rooney are among the weaker CMs in the division for carrying the ball, with Knight the only outlier.
This stems largely from the team’s ball progression ability. Bird, Shinnie, and Rooney are among the weaker CMs in the division for carrying the ball, with Knight the only outlier.
The issue persists for progressive passing, outlining a flaw in Knight and Bird’s game in particular. Bird, who has recently lost his starting place, can take his game to the next level by improving on this.
I think this team misses Duane Holmes: https://twitter.com/11pts1win/status/1295657062236659712?s=20
I think this team misses Duane Holmes: https://twitter.com/11pts1win/status/1295657062236659712?s=20
So what has caused #dcfc these issues in their build up play?
Players have failed to create these ‘triangles’ in order to progress play, which is so often done by taking up the half spaces between midfield lines. Two players who are strong at this are Sibley and Jozwiak.
Players have failed to create these ‘triangles’ in order to progress play, which is so often done by taking up the half spaces between midfield lines. Two players who are strong at this are Sibley and Jozwiak.
Jozwiak, in this instance, shows the intelligence to take up this half-space (positioning between the central and wide areas of the pitch), which allows him to show his strength of turning upon his first touch and playing a through ball to Kazim.
In a defensive sense, Graeme Shinnie has been #dcfc’s best performer in midfield. However, the striking takeaway from this visualisation is how lacklustre Rooney is in this field, showing how you need to account for his defensive inadequacies with the surrounding team selection.
Issues with the 4231:
Derby’s shape leaves our double pivot isolated from the forwards, making the transition from defence to attack difficult. Here you can see how the front four have been caught high up the pitch, and offer nothing positionally to progress play.
Derby’s shape leaves our double pivot isolated from the forwards, making the transition from defence to attack difficult. Here you can see how the front four have been caught high up the pitch, and offer nothing positionally to progress play.
Breaking midfield lines with ease:
In the build up to Barnsley’s second, Chaplin easily found Adeboyejo with a forward pass. Once again, our midfield line is non-existent, with Knight and Rooney pressing without cover. This pass would never happen without this wealth of space.
In the build up to Barnsley’s second, Chaplin easily found Adeboyejo with a forward pass. Once again, our midfield line is non-existent, with Knight and Rooney pressing without cover. This pass would never happen without this wealth of space.
#dcfc’s CBs, like most of the squad, have had to deal with systemic changes.
This graphic visualises how Clarke is the best CB at #dcfc (Bielik is a DM, IMO). Any attempt to drop him before a game at home to Blackburn, or to hook him off at HT vs. Barnsley, is ludicrous.
This graphic visualises how Clarke is the best CB at #dcfc (Bielik is a DM, IMO). Any attempt to drop him before a game at home to Blackburn, or to hook him off at HT vs. Barnsley, is ludicrous.
To Conclude: change is needed.
It’s hard not to feel for Cocu, a man who has had everything imaginable thrown at him, but #dcfc cannot continue to coast along at the bottom of the Championship.
I would expect Cocu to be dismissed post-takeover, but only time will tell.
It’s hard not to feel for Cocu, a man who has had everything imaginable thrown at him, but #dcfc cannot continue to coast along at the bottom of the Championship.
I would expect Cocu to be dismissed post-takeover, but only time will tell.
Thank you very much for reading!
Please do RT and share the thread if you found it informative, and remember to drop a follow if you are interested in seeing more of #dcfc and the Championship from an analytical perspective.
Please do RT and share the thread if you found it informative, and remember to drop a follow if you are interested in seeing more of #dcfc and the Championship from an analytical perspective.
