/THREAD "Should I play Davante Adams at $9,000 this week?"

The case in favor is obvious: dude's a boss. Top raw play on the slate. Has destroyed this year. You don't need me for that.

The point of this thread is to provide thoughtful devil's advocate reasons not to play him, to give a full picture to help you make an informed decision.

REASON 1: 27 mph wind

Math shows this kind of wind has a significant negative impact on offense, both in terms of volume and efficiency. In Week 8, GB played in 23 mph wind and followed league-wide trends, running the ball a lot more than usual https://twitter.com/DerekCarty/status/1326986035100835841?s=20

"But Davante scored 30 DK points in Week 8 with wind, so who cares?!"

He had 7 catches for 53 yards but scored *ALL* 3 of GB's TDs. In 2020 he has 33% of GB's pass TDs and 26% total. With 33% in Week 8 (i.e. 1 TD) he finishes w/ 18 DK points. If he scores 18 at 9k, you're dead.

Week 8 was Davante's worst efficiency week by a lot

(FWIW, it was also his highest aDOT, so if he catches a long ball, maybe the story here is different. But they're harder to catch in wind.)

1-game sample caveats obviously apply for both

It *is* worth pointing out that 27 mph wind in Lambeau may not effectively be 27 mph. I feel like I saw an official-looking tweet at the time, but can't find it now. Still, 27 mph is a lot no matter what. https://twitter.com/nickyvalter/status/1322886310982541318?s=20

REASON 2: He's 9k

To reach 3x value, you'd need his *average* expectation to be 27 points. To reach 2.75x, he'd need 25

Since 2000, no WR has ever averaged 27. One has averaged 26. Six have averaged 25.

Davante is averaging 29 this year, but can we expect that to continue?

REASON 3: Is his 38.5%+ target share (in healthy games) sustainable?

Since 2010, no WR has ever had 38%+ targets through 9 weeks.

37 have been 30%+, of which 25% maintained or increased their targets rest of season. On average, they dropped ~3.5%

Intuitively, high-30s should be harder to sustain than 30%, so the drop-off *could* be larger. But even a drop-off to 35% would still require elite+ efficiency or TD variance to get into that 25-27 point range.

"Davante is an anomaly. Their other targets suck and Rodgers just wants to throw to him"

You may be right. But their team was basically the same last year and Davante got just over 30% of targets. And this week, they return Aaron Jones and (probably) Lazard.

FWIW, in Week 8 with the high wind, Davante's 29.7% target share was a season low

REASON 4: Game script

GB has a high total, but they're nearly 2 TD favorites. We should expect a lot of running in the second half.

REASON 5: DVOA is noisy.

"The Jags defense is awful!"

I mean, sort of. JAX has the worst Pass DVOA by a lot, but to WRs they have allowed just the 6th-worst yards-per-target.

Their PFF coverage grades are 4th-worst for CBs and 7th-worst for safeties. Their pass rush grades are below average but not bottom 10.

That's all bad, but not all-world bad, and they had some key defensive injuries earlier in season. Plus, defense is super noisy to begin with.

REASON 6: Ownership

He currently projects as the highest-owned WR by several sources. In cash, do you play him to block? In GPP, even if you love him, does he crush by enough to be worth playing as chalk with non-ideal conditions?

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
GB has an extreme run-heavy game script and will run even more with the wind. Davante's target share comes down. Passing efficiency goes down in the wind. JAX's defense isn't quite as bad as the narrative.

Or....

Davante is such a boss that it doesn't matter and he just crushes anyway

Either route is entirely plausible IMO

This is not a "Don't Play Davante" thread. This is not a "Davante is Bad Chalk" thread. This is merely a thread to present some data that the recency-bias touts will miss, to help you decide for yourself what you want to do. Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.