Thread on what's happening tomorrow in D.C.

Don't take this as authoritative, but as information to consider.

I track these idiots on Telegram, Discord, Parler, etc.

If you've been watching the buildup to these, it may seem like a redux of Charlottesville. It's not.

On one side are the pro-Trump-ish groups: the "Million MAGA March" (organized by Trump-y people who aren't normally out in the streets), the "Stop the Steal" march/caravan (organized by a loose collection of InfoWars/QAnon types), and a rally organized by the Proud Boys.

There are some indications that other right-wing-militia types (Boogaloo Bois, American Guard, etc.) might be participating, but their numbers appear to be very small.

On the other side is a planned counter-protest, organized by local activists who are asking folks to show up in "Black Bloc", a typical anarchist technique for preventing identification during protest actions (among other things).

Here are some thoughts about what's shaping up, as best as I can tell from open source material:

* There will be maybe a few thousand folks who show up to support the right-wing protests--which will inevitably converge in one location, likely Freedom Plaza. I've been tracking hotel bookings in DC and even the chain hotels are nowhere near full, and the prices remain low.

Police in DC have done a good job (so far) of making sure that regular folks aren't caught up in these actions. There are massive road closures in DC on Saturday. Don't tell the right-wing people about it. Let them get stuck in traffic and not have any idea where to park.

Caveat: right-wing people who don't know DC might end up inadvertently in regular degular neighborhoods because they're lost. If you live in DC, just keep an eye out for them.

DC has very restrictive gun laws. Anyone who is open carrying will likely be swept up and arrested. One thing to watch for is if they are not--that would be a bad, bad sign.

Now, here's what's different about this compared to Charlottesville, and where I see the risks.

The Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville was organized over months, not a week. That enabled some backchannel communication and an attempt at keeping the peace, as much as possible. The groups were all ORGANIZED, which made everything easier to manage on the ground.

The right-wing protests this weekend are largely UNORGANIZED. I expect a lot of randos bent on picking a fight, who won't listen to anyone else on the ground. That's dangerous.

The right-wing protesters will not have as many outright neo-nazis as there were in Charlottesville. That's good. But the rhetoric has shifted so much in the last 3 years that anyone at the right-wing protest will see ANY counterprotester as an "Anti-American" target.

A heated interaction between the 'two' protest groups is inevitable. There's also a risk of off-site violence, between small bands of protestors who encounter each other. Folks have been itching for a fight. It's an open question as to whether discipline and cooler heads prevail.

The Sec of Defense, who opposed the use of the military for quelling protests, was recently removed. If there is a violent conflict tomorrow, I absolutely think it is possible that there will be active military deployment.

All this to say: please, please don't go to the counter protest, or anywhere near any of this, unless you know what you're doing. This is not the place for kids or dogs or amateurs. If you have to travel to get there, don't count on Metro continuing to run.

The best case scenario is that there's a lot of rabbling, but cooler heads prevail. We know how to handle rabbling, even aggressive rabbling. Hell, fist fights would be fine, in a way. Pray for no guns, no knives, no life-threatening bloodshed.

That's it. Stay safe, y'all. /fin