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Before I wane off from social media - this is the list of "old" bios I have and the little takes I have - here there - will be a thread... (..//n)
$AMRN - stk down to 4 - all depends on EU value - I dont like they keep spending on DTC in US - but stk at this stage is rather cheap IF EU comes thru and there is a supply constraint for generic entries in US.. mkt should be big euff.. seriously, TEVA should buy them..
$BMRN -- stk in mid 70s - a lot bad news is priced in - this is a stk stuck in nowhere-land - I dont think a deal is imminent.. it is not cheap.. stk is not totally cheap IMO, but stuck in normal baseline range - I care the outcome of GTx HAE side..
$CLVS - this is the pain of the pain.. Pat's special.. I dont like the debts and all that crap.. but at 4 ish, and with debts push out a couple of yrs.. 2021 could be more intriguing - this is not a stk for most folks.. not in big proportions anyway IMO..
$BMYRT - I have no clue on how iso-cel will do - should know the outcome very very soon - either a zero or a good return from 1s.. extremely risky, pure gambling IMO.. too many moving parts.. a call option in equity trade...
$CYTK - stk down on the HF P3 data - I did look at it, kinda intrigue in mid teens - all depends on the outcome of -274 esp. w/ the BMY-MYOK deal.. this company been around for ages, to me they always overpromised, underdelivered.. will -274 chg that track?
$GBT - I have said many times, I love the blood space - stk tanked to 30s, I bot a posn - these things are hard to know if the sales "disappointment" was covid or something else.. I am sitting on a mountain of cash doing nothing - I love things I love "in the cheap"..
$GILD - other than being a divi play - I dont know what to say -doubtful any other corporate news will drive more interest.. do I think the big onco deal w/ $IMMU will work out.. can't say - but what else they can do.. I have argued they need to split up.. LOL
$ICPT - stk in the 20s, IMO, was an insanity trade - unless PBC is DoA - I get it w/ people say competition is coming on and on.. but this name is trading on sentiments - some progress in NASH side along w/ PBC risk down - could easily be another $SAGE in the 20s trade.
$ITCI - this just get no love in the mkts - "to me" I dont give a crap to Schizo - but BPD I do.. one of those things it could burn itself to the ground w/ a bad launch or some Japanese come over and bamm bamm bamm..
$KPTI - stk is mid teens seem to be more interesting - I think the appropriate analog for them is good ole Stemline a few yrs back.. there are concerns w/ the launch costs.. and there are potential value creation for the right shop.. single asset company - again..
$MGTA - this name I watch on and off - slow progress and valuation reflects that - it is a big who knows - I do think Gtx needs a better preconditioning protocol.. will see what happen in 2021..
$PTCT - this is a very old timer for me - but I think 2021 will be a far more challenging yr for them - the easy trade w/ SMA is done - the challenge is what happen to Ataluren - and I worry these guys will burn off the big cash pile for nothing w/ extremely risk P3s..
$RETA - if we dont have the cardinal 2-yr data - it would still be on my watchlist - IMO, the trade from the panic selloff w/ FDA FA update (to <100) is done - like I said many times, people I trust w/ their calls in the past are totally in opposite sides.. I stay away at 170s.
$SLDB - people knew me long enuff would tell you I like to venture in places where few souls would go.. haha.. this is one of those Deadman's island play.. it will trade on the DMD Gtx readouts from $SRPT etc.. I get it, it is far behind and all the rest.. but... sentiment trade?
$SIOX - good ole AXGT with a name chg - nothing new to add other than the stk EV is very low - I really dont care Parkinsons' but GM1 GM2 .. 2021 all depends on progress of these... it is a crazy stk with annual price spikes... like flood of the nile - haha..
$SRRK - stk has rallied a lot - all depends on how real is the SMA data - I think they can get a partnership - and that could be the reason the stk is holding up so well w/ the offering and all the rest.. the onco side readout should give an idea if there is further upside.
$TCDA - stk went below 4 - seems like a trade - issues will take time to work out.. it is hard to know what plan they finally would get the FDA to agree .. valuation is pretty low here IF you believe the drug works and they can get thru the FDA in 2-3 yrs time..
$VSTM - in my old days, I call these things McChicken stocks - stuck in price like a McChicken sandwich -will they get some decent data in 2021.. the kind of names people need to keep an eye.. past McChicken names had generated some big returns - some stuck to oblivion.
$ZGNX - I have a strong preference in the epi. neurospace - I think it is extremely attractive space for deals - this name is stuck, launch seems weakish.. but never say never.. I HATE the convert debts - so never quite pull the trigger ..
End this thread w/ the biggie $BIIB - I know I am skewed - I know the FDA is in a tough spot - if there is a gun in the head bet 'for me' - it will be an Eteplirsen analog.. conditional, restrictive population, commitment to another big RCT, definitive review milestones..
This is pretty much all I have directly dumped from my tiny space reserved for bios mkt these days. I wish everyone have a great couple of mos ahead, covid or not.. love the people you treasure.. time dont wait.. life goes on but live everyday like a sunny day..
