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Big news for PLA watchers—the Central Military Commission is starting to issue new operational doctrine.
A short thread. 1/
A short thread. 1/
On November 7, a new "Outline of Joint Operations for the Chinese People's Liberation Army (Trial)" went into effect. 2/
http://www.mod.gov.cn/topnews/2020-11/13/content_4874081.htm
http://www.mod.gov.cn/topnews/2020-11/13/content_4874081.htm
This marks only the fifth time that the PLA has changed its operational doctrine since 1949. 3/
(For more on the PLA's operational doctrine and how it relates to China's military strategy, see https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691152134/active-defense)
(For more on the PLA's operational doctrine and how it relates to China's military strategy, see https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691152134/active-defense)
The last change to operational doctrine occurred two decades ago, in 1999, when the PLA issued its first joint operations campaign outline (战役纲要) as part of the "fourth generation" of operations regulations. 4/
Efforts to formulate new operational doctrine for joint operations stalled in the late 2000s. A "fifth generation" of operations regulations was drafted but never promulgated. 5/
The new joint operations outline is described as "the top-level regulation [顶层法规] of our military's operational regulations system [作战条令体系] in the new era." That is, it provides a framework to guide the subsequent development of the PLA's operational doctrine. 6/
In other words, a process has begun that will unfold over several years to issue additional outlines/regulations for each of the services. The "fourth generation" of operational doctrine included 89 regulations. The "new era" doctrine will likely include even more. 7/
The joint operations outline was issued on a trial basis, suggesting that the promulgation of the PLA's operational doctrine may be more dynamic than in the past. It may also abandon the focus on "generations" of doctrine. 8/
The new joint operations outline also codifies the shift from campaigns (战役) to operations (作战) as the unit of analysis for China's operational doctrine, indicating a more nimble and refined approach to the use of force. 9/
The promulgation of a high-level doctrinal document suggests that the PLA is consolidating the changes to improve joint operations that were part of the unprecedented reforms that began in late 2015. In fact, it likely signals confidence that the reforms have been successful. 10/
Of course, similar to the PLA's past operational doctrine, the new outline is classified and will never be openly published. Nevertheless, it will inform PLA writings on joint operations for the coming decade. 11/
For example, does this mean a new edition of the Science of Strategy (战略学) may be on the horizon? Will the PLA write a Science of Operations (作战学)? Inquiring minds want to know.... 12/
For now, look for commentaries on the new outline in the coming weeks and months. The next defense white paper, perhaps in 2021, may also contain hints/clues about the changes and could even focus on joint operations as its theme. END/
