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This looks at the number of reported Ontario ICU patients by day. As it approaches 150, we should see more local ICU capacities affected in hotter regions or regions with limited ICU capacity. Patients needing ICU for non-covid reasons would also be affected.
Here is the Science Table's latest projections. Even the best case scenario projects that capacity will be exceeded in the coming weeks. Note that covid ICU is not just a "bed". It requires specialized staff, equipment, PPE, etc.
Here is a closeup of what is happening in wave 2, with some trend fitting. Note that a moving average (yellow) will always underestimate what is happening in a rising trend. (14 day is commonly used for hospital planning).
Technical note: I do not have access to the Critical Care system data, I use the Ontario daily status report for current ICU cases. So the internal number being used may differ (and could hopefully be more accurate).
