Read on Twitter
Lots of speculation that something is cooking re Iran. Esper was fired after 3 meetings in a month with @gantzbe, Elliott Abrams was in Israel this week & @SecPompeo’s coming next week. Yesterday, @IDF chief Kochavi spoke to US counterpart Milley. Lots of coordination going on.
In addition, McMaster, Trump’s ex-NSA told @FoxNews he believes Israel might attack in final Trump weeks due to genuine concern @JoeBiden will go back to JCPOA, something Israel will want to stop. Also, Saudi King urged world yesterday to take ‘decisive stance’ against Iran.
A few thoughts: 1. Anything is possible with this POTUS.
2. No state of urgency in Israel right now or sign that an attack is in planning like beefing up forces in the North (but as 2007 covert strike against Syria taught us that does not mean much).
2. No state of urgency in Israel right now or sign that an attack is in planning like beefing up forces in the North (but as 2007 covert strike against Syria taught us that does not mean much).
3. Netanyahu has enough trouble heading into a new election campaign (likely to start in a week) with COVID & falling popularity. A war with a lot of rockets raining down from Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran will probably not help.
4. Not first time ppl have speculated about an attack during POTUS lame duck period. Same happened toward end of Bush 43’s term when some Israeli officials publicly said they did not believe Bush would leave office with Iran’s nuclear facilities still standing. He did.
5. Bibi wanted twice to attack in 2010 & 2012 & in the end couldn’t muster support in cabinet-IDF.
6. While we don’t see intel, an Israeli attack’s always been last resort option. The IAEA report of increasing uranium does not yet justify an attack. It’s not yet military grade.
6. While we don’t see intel, an Israeli attack’s always been last resort option. The IAEA report of increasing uranium does not yet justify an attack. It’s not yet military grade.
This would of course be different if IDF knew of bomb being built in underground bunker.
7. With that said, anything’s possible especially when we are dealing with 2 leaders - @netanyahu & Trump - who are often unpredictable and willing to do a lot to stay relevant and in power.
7. With that said, anything’s possible especially when we are dealing with 2 leaders - @netanyahu & Trump - who are often unpredictable and willing to do a lot to stay relevant and in power.
Report in @nytimes shows that this speculation was not baseless. Nevertheless, based on report, missile attack seems unlikely for similar reasons like stated above.
Either way, important to keep in mind that Iran learns a bad lesson here. It keeps violating & getting away w/ it.
Either way, important to keep in mind that Iran learns a bad lesson here. It keeps violating & getting away w/ it.
