Back in March/April I became worried that people with Covid-19 symptoms were being reassured and told to stay at home. Telephone triage staff were using questionable ways of assessing how ill people were and their likelihood of deteriorating.

2/
QCOVID is a new, validated, score which predicts likely severity of Covid-19 based on items (e.g. age, comorbidities) on the patient’s GP record. But it does not include any acute data so isn’t designed to assess how sick the patient currently is.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3731

6/
If you use QCOVID to decide whether to send someone to hospital, you’re likely to miss the young person without risk factors who (unluckily) has very serious illness. You’re also likely to send in too many people (eg care home patients) who don’t have Covid.

7/
RECAP was developed using extensive qualitative research – focus groups and interviews with clinicians (GPs, nurses, paramedics) and patients (people who had had the experience of calling NHS111 with deteriorating Covid-19).

8/
We also did an evidence review and a 4-round Delphi panel in which clinicians hammered out the wording and cut-off values for each item. And we got them to apply the items to fictional vignettes which we’d deliberately constructed as ‘grey’ (difficult) cases.

9/
We’ve ended up with a list of items which has what’s called ‘face validity’ – most clinicians look at it and say yeah seems about right. But this list has not yet been validated (does it *actually* predict outcome)? We’re testing that now.

10/
We’re recruiting 3000 patients (via their GPs) with new symptoms of Covid-19 to agree to data linkage where we link the RECAP items with outcomes (hospital admission, ITU admission, death).

11/
I’m a qualitative researcher so my contribution to RECAP is largely finished. The quantitative data linkage study (currently ongoing) is led by @bcdelaney1 and @lusignan_s It’s a partnership between Oxford and Imperial BRCs, funded by UKRI and Community Jameel Imperial fund.

12/
You can read more about the validation phase of the RECAP study here. If you’re a GP you can find out how to join the study (and get paid to recruit patients).

https://imperialbrc.nihr.ac.uk/research/covid-19/covid-19-ongoing-studies/recap/

13/
We made a video to explain the ongoing RECAP validation study here:

https://imperialbrc.nihr.ac.uk/research/covid-19/covid-19-ongoing-studies/recap/recap-video/

end/
PS the final (not yet validated) RECAP items are here. We hope that the final score, once validated (likely to be tweaked and hopefully shortened), will save lives.
You can follow @trishgreenhalgh.
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