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This is the current coronavirus situation in India. For a certain average wetbulb temperature (50F), coronavirus increasing rate is highest. Between 45 to 55 F, temp dependent virus replication is very much favorable even social distancing apparantly not helping. (THREAD)
Between average wetbulb temperature from 55 to 60F social distancing helps. Cases are dropping. After 60F cases are mostly either dropping or remain constant. Temp information is taken from those cities where cases are highest. Statewise case increasing is plotted here.
We need to avoid favorable virus replication zone. Mask helps greatly by keeping our nasal airway hot. However, in freezing winter zone, mask may not be recommended because it can raise temp to the virus favorable zone. We occassionally need to get out of this cold.
The ideas are- cooking, inhaling warm water vapor, drinking/eating from steaming food, When temp is raised during the day, spending time indoor under the sun (for example, sitting near the window) while keep wearing mask, taking shower with hot water (stay warm after bathing).
Occassionally spending time in the temp zone where virus replication is not favorable can stop/slow virus growth. Body immune system can take care low doses. Following study suggests something interesting. Please read and come back to the next comment.
So no evidence of virus infection in Antarctica! However, in one instance virus outbreak was noticed. Exactly during that time, everyone had to spend time within a central hut due to inclement weather. I can easily see that they were in the virus favorable zone for a long time.
They didn't have chance to spend time in the freezing outside which would stop replication. Another point, they were completely isolated. How did they get virus is interesting. More than 50% people affected by the virus in USA do not know how they got it. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/pdf/jhyg00082-0026.pdf
This is not a random correlation. I am a student of coalescence phenomena & colloid science. I have been doing research on this for last 6+ years. I know how membrane fusion can happen. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343834742_Membrane_tension_may_define_the_deadliest_infection
For a certain membrane tension difference (Tv/Tc) between virus (Tv) & cell (Tc), infectious type virus entry can happen. When Tv/Tc is not within that range, virus replication is not favorable. Virus membrane tension can be modulated by nasal airway mucus temp.
As you see in this plot (you can take any country and check it out. If you get something else let me know), for 50F (wet bulb temp) faster virus spreading happens. At this temp, Tv/Tc is at a critical value which ensures right kind of viral entry for favorable replication.
For efficient viral growth, people perhaps need to stay in that range for few weeks. Therefore, we need to break the chain of cold frequently, every day. Because, we cannot see virus growth unless we get the symptom. If you keep your room at 65F & RH at 30%, wet bulb temp is 50F.
If you do not break the chain of cold and stay in this condition for few weeks and contact virus, you may get very sick. Therefore, watch out wet bulb temp and break this chain of virus favorable condition.
How kids are mostly asympotomaic? Kids breathing rate is higher & ratio of surface area to volume flow rate is also higher. Therefore, their upper respiratory tract perhaps never reach that viral favorable temp. For the same reason, virus is more infectious for tall people.
In some of the countries (such as Bangladesh, Pakistan & Peru) women are less likely to die from coronavirus. In these countries, for 3 men 1 women died (until mid June). As I know Bangladeshi culture, women cook almost every day & spend significant time in hot & steam.
Virus replication is related to environment wetbulb temp, not directly related to weather situation. However, weather influence indoor environment as well, as long as there is no source of vapor generation.
We are passing difficult time, but we will be in good shape in freezing winter. As people are using masks indoor, death rate should be significantly lower than last Spring even though # of cases are too high. But masks may not help sufficiently in colder outdoor.
Lockdown or social distancing on a timely basis can help significantly to scale down case growth! People should keep wearing mask most of the time and even they can sleep while wearing it. This is the cheapest best way to get humid air which will prevent lowering mucus temp.
I have been tweeting for months now. Perhaps this is my final tweet. I ruined my personal life for last few months. Unfortunately, I couldn't make much progress. If you have questions, please read our paper and read my other tweets. Thank you. Stay safe and health!
