Read on Twitter
A deep dive into the Kentucky senate race.Time to audit Kentucky?
THREAD
#AuditKentuckyVotingMachine
#AuditMitchMcConnell
Let's start off with the basic voter registration data.
According to Kentucky State Board of elections these are the registration statistics as of October 2020
Source here:
https://elect.ky.gov/Resources/Pages/Registration-Statistics.aspx
According to Kentucky State Board of elections these are the registration statistics as of October 2020
Source here:
https://elect.ky.gov/Resources/Pages/Registration-Statistics.aspx
Basic registration of major party stats:
Democrat: 1 672 380
Republican: 1 568 690
Difference = 103,690 in favour of Democrats
Democrat: 1 672 380
Republican: 1 568 690
Difference = 103,690 in favour of Democrats
Adding in all other registered voters:
e.g other, independent, libertarianism, Green etc
182 877 + 124 700 + 13 511 + 1931 + 899 + 138 + 300
Other than Dem/Rep = +- 324 356
e.g other, independent, libertarianism, Green etc
182 877 + 124 700 + 13 511 + 1931 + 899 + 138 + 300
Other than Dem/Rep = +- 324 356
If all other registered voters voted for:
Reps = 1 568 690 + 324 356 = 1 893 046
Dems = 1 672 380 + 324 356 = 1 996 736
We will be using best case scenario for Reps and Worst case scenario for Dems
Reps = 1 893 046
Dems = 1 672 380
= 3 565 426 registered voters.
Reps = 1 568 690 + 324 356 = 1 893 046
Dems = 1 672 380 + 324 356 = 1 996 736
We will be using best case scenario for Reps and Worst case scenario for Dems
Reps = 1 893 046
Dems = 1 672 380
= 3 565 426 registered voters.
There is a difference of 2 votes for their sum and the sum of all on the registered data excel- I don't know where these 2 votes are but it's a non-issue going forward. We will go with the 3 565 426 registered voters going forward as opposed to 3 565 428 reg voters in the excel.
Assuming all Rep + other voters voted for Mitch McConnell he would receive:
1 893 046 / 3 565 426 = 0.53 = 53%
Amy McGrath would receive:
1 672 380 / 3 565 426 = 0.47 = 47%
Both rounded to 2nd decimal.
1 893 046 / 3 565 426 = 0.53 = 53%
Amy McGrath would receive:
1 672 380 / 3 565 426 = 0.47 = 47%
Both rounded to 2nd decimal.
Caution: Before continuing all this data above is from Kentucky's voter registration from OCTOBER 2020. We don't have the data from November so this may well have changed.
There are a lot of assumptions here based on the October data.
There are a lot of assumptions here based on the October data.
Results of 2020 senate race:
Mitch McConnell won by a massive margin of THOSE who voted.
With >95% votes counted:
- McConnell won with 57.77% of the vote.
- McGrath lost with 38.24% of the vote.
Mitch McConnell won by a massive margin of THOSE who voted.
With >95% votes counted:
- McConnell won with 57.77% of the vote.
- McGrath lost with 38.24% of the vote.
Using registration data from Oct 2020 we can assume that:
Actual voters vs Registered voters =
Republicans = 1 233 061 / 1568690 = 78% turnout
Democrats = 816 150 / 1672380 = 49% turnout
We don't have the data to determine all other registered voters influence on turnout.
Actual voters vs Registered voters =
Republicans = 1 233 061 / 1568690 = 78% turnout
Democrats = 816 150 / 1672380 = 49% turnout
We don't have the data to determine all other registered voters influence on turnout.
Even this turnout disparity raises some massive questions:
- How effective was voter suppression efforts/tactics in Kentucky?
- Did voters switch party reg before the election?
- What caused the discrepancy between turnout & registration?
- Was there something more nefarious?
- How effective was voter suppression efforts/tactics in Kentucky?
- Did voters switch party reg before the election?
- What caused the discrepancy between turnout & registration?
- Was there something more nefarious?
Here's a poll averaging the favorability/unfavorability of McConnell in the lead up to election.
Average
Favourable = 27.3%
Unfavourable = 50.5%
Difference = 23.2%
We don't take polls as gospel but they do raise questions. Were the polls wrong or did something else happen?
Average
Favourable = 27.3%
Unfavourable = 50.5%
Difference = 23.2%
We don't take polls as gospel but they do raise questions. Were the polls wrong or did something else happen?
Remember McConnell is senate majority leader. He has massive influence on what bills are passed & sway among Republicans.
He is one of the most powerful men in America w/ very many powerful friends & any elections in which he's a participant should be scrutinized very closely.
He is one of the most powerful men in America w/ very many powerful friends & any elections in which he's a participant should be scrutinized very closely.
A brief history of Mitch McConnell:
1) He has blocked at least 10 election security bills including
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/482569-senate-gop-blocks-three-election-security-bills
1) He has blocked at least 10 election security bills including
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/482569-senate-gop-blocks-three-election-security-bills
2) McConnel blocked the Heroes Act which would have given $3.6 billion to states for election aid and give the postal service $25 billion to the Postal Service to help with vote-by-mail. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/06/kentucky-votes-today-here-are-all-the-ways-mitch-mcconnell-has-made-that-harder/
3) Mitch McConnell Received Donations from Voting Machine Lobbyists Before Blocking Election Security Bills https://www.newsweek.com/mitch-mcconnell-robert-mueller-election-security-russia-1451361?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true
4) The GOP then killed all efforts to secure the 2020 election, including the #SAFEAct, which would have required robust manual election audits to confirm electronic outcomes in all federal races. https://twitter.com/jennycohn1/status/1326384620385001483?s=20
5) See my 45+ examples of other GOP related attacks on democracy which McConnell has allowed for/enabled during his tenure as Leader of the Senate:
- Voter suppression
- Allow foreign interference
- Dismantling USPS
- Misinfo
- Voter/counter intimidation https://twitter.com/Real_QL/status/1326854234885640193?s=20
- Voter suppression
- Allow foreign interference
- Dismantling USPS
- Misinfo
- Voter/counter intimidation https://twitter.com/Real_QL/status/1326854234885640193?s=20
Word of warning: https://twitter.com/Real_QL/status/1325988625624936448?s=20
Wrap up:
- Feel free to check my maths (I'm no maths major)
- The Kentucky race results raises MANY questions
- The power imbalance between McGrath/McConnell also raises issues for a fair election.
- The only way we will know answers is for a completely Independent audit.
- Feel free to check my maths (I'm no maths major)
- The Kentucky race results raises MANY questions
- The power imbalance between McGrath/McConnell also raises issues for a fair election.
- The only way we will know answers is for a completely Independent audit.
@threadreaderapp unroll
