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It makes sense that Vermonters are concerned about the recent spike in cases in today's record-high case counts (chart from @asuozzo). In order to not let our guard down, we need to have a goal in mind. Here's what the data show (thread):
https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2020/11/12/vermont-records-109-new-covid-19-cases-as-surge-continues
https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2020/11/12/vermont-records-109-new-covid-19-cases-as-surge-continues
We've seen from previous studies that it is impossible for one state to completely close its borders. This spike that we are seeing is due to a national rise in transmission and was expected through our modeling. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2024274
Let's start off with what we know. The "good" news is that the state's weekly positivity rate has decreased from 9.6% on April 3 (our previous peak) to 0.8% on November 7. This means that the numbers we have now are closer to the true infection count. https://twitter.com/asuozzo/status/1326558887689003008
We've been hearing a lot about the outbreak from the hockey team in Montpelier, and this shows how one gathering can snowball into high case counts across multiple places. I'll be doing more epi work on this soon, but here's a story from @EPetenko. https://vtdigger.org/2020/10/30/montpelier-outbreaks-expands-to-87-covid-19-cases-spread-throughout-the-state/
When we look at cases in Vermont broken down by county, we see that 42% of today's cases were in Washington County. It is possible that the outbreak has snowballed into low levels of community transmission. For other counties, community transmission is less present.
This goes back to the importance of contact tracing, and I applaud @healthvermont for their work on reaching as many cases as possible and instructing contacts to get tested and quarantine. This is critical for the health of our community and will enable us to stay open.
Here's a slide from the WHO. In many areas of the state, we are in the early detection/containment phase and have the opportunity to contain the virus before exponential growth occurs. Most states do not have this luxury — they need to mitigate.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/managing-epidemics-interactive.pdf
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/managing-epidemics-interactive.pdf
In order to slow an epidemic, we need to see where the virus spreads. In many areas of the country, we are concerned about mask wearing. But when we look at Carnegie Mellon data, we see 94% of Vermonters wear masks most or all of the time in public.
Here's the kicker: Researchers published in @nature an analysis of cell phone data linked to case counts. They found relationships between indoor dining and fitness centers as top locations for spreading Covid-19.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3#article-info
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3#article-info
Here's Vermont's main issue: Gatherings. As @JaneLindholm reports, officials are urging those who attended these gatherings to get tested. While you may not think your small gathering is an issue, think again. Trust me: I contact trace the White House. https://twitter.com/JaneLindholm/status/1326975350874759168
When imposing public health measures such as business closures and stay-at-home orders, we must consider the risks and benefits. Measures such as a campus "lockdown" at this point are not as effective; colleges like @Middlebury should prohibit indoor dining in town, for example.
This whole "I'm young and invincible thing"? Trust me, it doesn't work. New data from @COVID19Tracking show that cases and deaths in long-term care facilities are rising again. It is quite likely Vermont will see more hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks.
So what can we do now? @asosin wrote a brilliant thread last night on #SafePandemicFun. We have everything on our side in Vermont — testing capacity, contact tracers, high mask compliance; we just need your help to not have unmasked, indoor gatherings. https://twitter.com/asosin/status/1326724733279285248
I love our state; I want Vermont to succeed. At this point, a "shutdown" may not be necessary; however, we need to have targeted interventions to limit gatherings and encourage safe behavior. A distant Thanksgiving apart this year is a healthy and together Thanksgiving next year.
I believe in this #BraveLittleState to lead the nation through our adherence to travel policies, testing and quarantine regulations and mask-wearing habits.
Do you? Join me as we fight against Covid-19 together and strive for the health and safety of all Vermonters.
Do you? Join me as we fight against Covid-19 together and strive for the health and safety of all Vermonters.
