The conundrum right now about the whole "theaters versus streaming/PVOD" thing is that many/most of this year's big PVOD and streaming titles were initially anticipated specifically because they were supposed to be in theaters first.
Save for some Netflix originals (THE OLD GUARD, HUBIE HALLOWEEN), pretty much every "big" title this year that debuted at home (TROLLS 2, SCOOB, GREYHOUND, BILL & TED 3, etc.) was supposed to be a theatrical offering. Even ENOLA HOLMES was supposed to be a WB theatrical release.
SOUL's arrival on Disney+ is a big friggin deal precisely because it was supposed to be (and probably would have been) a global theatrical blockbuster. The vast majority of new Disney+ movies (MAGIC CAMP, HAMILTON, ARTEMIS FOWL, etc.) were initially intended for theaters.
There's a case to be made releasing big movies onto streaming, especially theatrically dicey flicks like WITCHES or ONE AND ONLY IVAN, is more useful as a subscriber enticement than as a theatrical miss. Obviously, dropping TENET on HBO Max would have seen subscriptions surge.
*But* if the key part of that enticement is "theatrical movie on streaming service right at home," then technically you still need the notion of "big movies play in theaters" to make these streaming debuts into "big deals." Otherwise, it's just direct-to-streaming movies.
MULAN Is a huge deal precisely because it was intended for theaters and thus had a theatrical budget and theatrical production values. Sans those attributes, it's LADY AND THE TRAMP. Ditto, for example, the SCORPION KING reboot versus the direct-to-DVD SCORPION KING sequels.
Even MY SPY, which likely would have bombed in theaters this past April, is a big deal on Amazon partially because it has the allure and polish of a "was supposed to be in theaters" feature film. Ditto TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7, which Paramount sold to Netflix.
Thus far, we've seen a clear advantage, in terms of media attention and viewership, for big movies that were supposed to be in theaters versus "always intended to be streaming/VOD" titles. While audiences flock to streaming over theaters, they still want theatrical content.
It's a conundrum, and why I follow Netflix's "most-watched" list. Audiences still crave movie theater-worthy feature film content. They just don't want to go to theaters. They flock to forgotten studio flops and "was supposed to be in theaters" releases on the various platforms.
The key selling point to so much of the streaming universe is essentially "Look at all of these theatrical movies available right now for free." But for that ecosystem to continue, you still have to have movie theaters releasing theatrical movies.
You remove the theatrical window and/or theatrical prestige, and everything new movie just another streaming or VOD debut. Absent that designation, will audiences still care? Or will it become a "when everyone's special, no one is" situation?
It's something that should be considered as studios figure out how to deal with movie theaters in a post-Covid era. You can't say "Hollywood doesn't need movie theaters" and also say "Look at all of these big theatrical movies skipping theaters or coming to streaming."
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