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1/5 The media & profs are now on to the 'feast before fast' (inter-temporal demand shifting) effect that I've talked about previously. That it doesn't seem to have been anticipated speaks again to the lack of economic expertise at the relevant tables, ... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/12/rush-pub-second-lockdown-may-have-fuelled-record-rise-covid/
... although in this case almost anybody with experience of the everyday life of millions would have done. However, I don't think it was the only factor at work. Testing was at a record high yesterday, 25% higher than the day before, and, if you test more, you will get more +ves.
We can see that plainly by looking at reported cases since March. The testing & cases numbers then look puny compared with numbers later, but that spring epidemic remains the larger of the two. It's a reminder that when looking at cases, the upward trend in testing imparts ...
,,, an upward trend in cases, which is easily misinterpreted as a worsening epidemic. All that said, it can still be noted that Monday's spike in date-of-specimen data currently show a number that is 14% *below* the number for the previous Monday. It will creep up a bit more,...
... but it's a long way from certain that it will set a new record. Let's see what the next couple of days of data bring.
