Nevada voters reaffirmed their support for clean energy last week by adding a 50% RPS to the constitution

Now NV can continue the momentum and cement its role a climate champ

A based on our report w/ @GridLabEnergy, @NRDC, @SierraClub, @evolved_energy & @PhySciEng

In 2019, NV passed SB254, establishing statewide goals for greenhouse gas reductions:

28% by 2025 (from a 2005 baseline)
45% by 2030
Zero- or near-zero emissions by 2050

The state will miss these targets without further action—it needs new laws and rules to get on track.

We set out to chart a detailed path to meeting the emission reduction goals and understand the key tradeoffs.

@GridLabEnergy published the full report here.

This thread summarizes our key findings https://gridlab.org/works/achieve-nevadas-climate-goals/

How did we do it?

@evolved_energy modeled the energy system, charting energy supply and demand pathways to meet NV's GHG constraints.

@PhySciEng then mapped historical, current, and projected pollution and energy burden in the context of racial and socioeconomic trends.

Where is NV starting?

Vehicles and power-sector gas use make up the vast majority of CO2
Most criteria air pollution comes from vehicles and a small amount of coal use
Air pollutant emissions are heavily concentrated in low-income communities and communities of color

Where must we go?

First: ELECTRICITY

Clean power is at the heart of the climate strategy.

As @drvox notes, NV voters sealed the 50% renewable energy standard into the state constitution last week. But our analysis shows that’s not fast enough. https://bit.ly/2IyrAUT 

Even with rapid electrification and efficiency in the other sectors, the state must achieve ~80% clean electricity by 2030.

That means cutting the use of existing gas plants and building lots of new solar and storage.

NV has excellent solar resources and is poised to build significant new solar anyway. But it needs a lot more to reach its goals.

Building retrofits and other efficiency measures could substantially reduce the amount of solar needed, especially in the 2040s. More on that later.

Next: TRANSPORTATION

Transport is a huge and growing source of emissions. There’s no time to waste in transitioning to electric vehicles and investing in non-passenger-vehicle mobility.

EV sales must rise sharply in the next decade so that the full fleet can turn over by 2050.

Our pathways to meeting the climate goals also result in significant reductions in criteria air pollution.

Note that PM10 reductions are smaller than for other pollutants because EVs still release PM10 from brake wear. Another reason to reduce vehicle use!

Vehicle stock turnover takes time.

Even with a steep increase in EV sales, NV sees only a small reduction in air pollution from today's levels by 2030, w/ the larger reductions coming later.

Some communities still may see increases in pollution from 2020-2030, esp. from trucks.

Pairing EVs w/ reductions in passenger vehicle use can help bring pollution cuts to all communities, as shown by our EE case.

Other policies, like targeted investments in clean heavy-duty trucks & rerouting freight, are critical to ensure reductions for overburdened communities.

Third: BUILDINGS

Emissions from buildings are expected to grow without new policy.

To curb emissions, NV must:

Rapidly increase adoption of electric appliances
Ensure that new building shells and appliances are highly efficient
Upgrade existing buildings

Many Nevadans pay way too much to power their homes. In some Las Vegas census tracts, the average household pays 7-10% of its income on energy.

And Vegas is expected to have 76-125 days above 95 degrees by 2050, making energy efficiency and affordable energy even more crucial.

The projected increase in extreme heat & the # of energy burdened households means that an ambitious, equitable building & housing strategy is urgent.

Electrification strategies should prioritize & protect low-income customers, & retrofit policies should prevent displacement.

In sum:

NV can transform its energy system & fight the climate crisis by improving peoples’ lives with cleaner air; healthier & more comfortable homes; & more accessible & equitable transportation.

AND w/ similar economic costs to business as usual.

There’s no time to waste!

Read the full report for policy recommendations & more cool charts. https://bit.ly/36tVDWm 

Big kudos to @dsullivanenergy, Elspeth Dimarzio, Priya Sreedharan, @NoahBakerLong @taylormmcnair @RicOConnell8 @amelia_myers @brendanpierpont & many others for making this happen.