Ontario's modelling team dropping bombs:

- Key indicators of pandemic worsening across ON
- ON case #'s will surpass regions of Europe that had to lock down in 2nd wave
- Even in best case scenario ON will pass 150 ICU hospitalizations in 2-3 weeks, meaning cancelling surgeries

- LTC mortality is increasing and continued spread means more LTC outbreaks will follow
- high level of cases with no epidemiological link, in part b/c contact tracing is becoming difficult w high numbers
- significant growth in test positivity even among PHUs that are doing well

- Some PHUs are getting just 2/3 of their tests processed within 48 hours.
- substantial growth in % positivity in older age groups - in some cases by factor of 3 or 4, meaning hospitalizations and mortality will accelerate

- Ontario is on pace to pass France, which is currently in lockdown, by December
- Projections of 3%-5% growth show Ontario could face 3,000-7,000 daily cases by end of December without intervention
- Hospitalizations have increased 61% in 3 weeks

- Looking at the projected case growth, ICU capacity will be exceeded within 2-3 weeks even in best case scenario, and will likely reach 200 ICU beds within 6 weeks
- there will be longterm consequences because of the lack of access to healthcare as system becomes overwhelmed

I really recommend you watch the first speaker in this video. This is a damning report: