Read on Twitter
THREAD: Extending the #SARSCoV2 ( #COVID_19) updates I started on Feb 2nd (when U.S. had only 5 cases). Each thread has a final post linking to the next.
Slow motion train wreck.
Click the lowest "Show this thread" for latest posts.
If useful, please RT https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1224336829635276801
Slow motion train wreck.
Click the lowest "Show this thread" for latest posts.
If useful, please RT https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1224336829635276801
The days that distress me most are the days that fatalities go needlessly off-book.
Containment = life
Containment = reopening without lockdown
The trajectory of this pandemic is determined not by changes in the behavior of the virus, but by changes in the behavior of people.
Containment = life
Containment = reopening without lockdown
The trajectory of this pandemic is determined not by changes in the behavior of the virus, but by changes in the behavior of people.
When most of us think of the word "surgeon" we think of someone wearing a mask.
Why do you think they wear a mask?
Do you really think science argues against it?
Do you really imagine the angry podcast or talking head you just listened to makes you a better informed citizen?
Why do you think they wear a mask?
Do you really think science argues against it?
Do you really imagine the angry podcast or talking head you just listened to makes you a better informed citizen?
I know you’re exhausted by this epidemic. I am too. But we’re in a critical window to save lives here, in the space where potentially safe, effective vaccines are in sight, but still months before they will be widely available.
See "Public health note" https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201116/
See "Public health note" https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201116/
Having promising vaccines in sight, yet months until widespread availability, at the same moment a new #COVID19 wave has gone exponential...
...is like having a 20 foot rope, when you're 30 feet from solid ground, and you've just slipped into quicksand.
#StopTheSpread
...is like having a 20 foot rope, when you're 30 feet from solid ground, and you've just slipped into quicksand.
#StopTheSpread
We've gone exponential. New lockdowns are avoidable only if leaders offer CLEAR MESSAGING on how epidemics are contained & people LISTEN:
1) Probability: masks, distancing, airflow, hygiene, brevity
2) Number: contacts, group size, events
3) Duration: isolation, testing, tracing
1) Probability: masks, distancing, airflow, hygiene, brevity
2) Number: contacts, group size, events
3) Duration: isolation, testing, tracing
"That's exactly how this little coronavirus with twice the R0 of the seasonal flu, and a mortality rate that is evidently an order of magnitude higher, will produce utter chaos if containment efforts are not taken seriously."
- Me 3/1/20
Probability, number, duration. See thread
- Me 3/1/20
Probability, number, duration. See thread
This is now 9/11 every single day
Please. Use a mask. Maintain distance. Limit indoor conversation & forceful exhalation in public. Reduce group size. Increase ventilation or outdoor settings. Self-isolate if you've been in contact or feel ill (fever, cough, malaise)
See thread
Please. Use a mask. Maintain distance. Limit indoor conversation & forceful exhalation in public. Reduce group size. Increase ventilation or outdoor settings. Self-isolate if you've been in contact or feel ill (fever, cough, malaise)
See thread
So, I'm grateful for the FDA's careful review. The mRNA vaccines are encouraging, I think, because they both incorporate edits to stabilize the spike in a state that broadens response beyond RBD. But we've still only seen press releases. Let's get it right https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-head-defends-covid-19-vaccine-approval-process-11606954168
Cumulative incidence curve of COVID-19 following first dose of PFE mRNA vaccine. A few notes:
1) Days 1-12 nearly identical. Protection not immediate.
2) Rollout will take time. Containment efforts remain critical.
3) Not all vaccines are identical. Careful review is essential.
1) Days 1-12 nearly identical. Protection not immediate.
2) Rollout will take time. Containment efforts remain critical.
3) Not all vaccines are identical. Careful review is essential.
We're way off-book from a trajectory that already implied 500,000 U.S. fatalities by March, before vaccination is widespread (I'm encouraged by the mRNA designs - see thread). Meanwhile, don't conflate "containment" with "lockdown". It's a broad set of reasonable practices. NOW.
Note on #COVID19 viral shedding. Based on a broad range of studies, shedding of *viable (i.e. infective) virus is reported as early as 6 days before symptoms to 20 d after. Unlikely beyond 9 days in mild. Shedding of viral *particles can be more extended. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33077007/
One of the most excruciating aspects of this pandemic is the needless number of American lives that have been lost, simply because people insist on conflating even modest and reasonable containment behaviors with "lockdown."
Why so few repurposed therapeutics for #COVID19? The required clinical evidence often approaches that of a Phase III trial; less than 0.1% of CARES funding went to efforts like NCATS/CTAP/ACTIV; generics can't hit the bar w/o funding; studies have faced recruitment difficulties.
These references to well-tolerated therapeutics with reported benefit in #COVID19 are provided strictly to share and discuss with a physician, and are not intended as medical advice:
https://www.hussmanfoundation.org/research/COVID19_RepurposedTherapeutics_Hussman.pdf
My paper on cellular and molecular pathways: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2020.01169/full
https://www.hussmanfoundation.org/research/COVID19_RepurposedTherapeutics_Hussman.pdf
My paper on cellular and molecular pathways: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2020.01169/full
For the love of humanity, make this stop.
Updated pandemic trajectory based on current containment practices. Neither a vaccine nor Joe can stop this in time.
Modest behavioral changes CAN. The main vector:
UNMASKED OR CLOSE-RANGE INDOOR CONVERSATION
IN PUBLIC OR WITH GUESTS
Updated pandemic trajectory based on current containment practices. Neither a vaccine nor Joe can stop this in time.
Modest behavioral changes CAN. The main vector:
UNMASKED OR CLOSE-RANGE INDOOR CONVERSATION
IN PUBLIC OR WITH GUESTS
I posted this to the Hussman Foundation website along with my Frontiers paper. Not advice. No magic bullets. Just sharing research studies and rationale to discuss with your physician. #COVID19
https://www.hussmanfoundation.org/research/COVID19_RepurposedTherapeutics_Hussman.pdf
I've heard good responses so far. If it helps, please RT.
https://www.hussmanfoundation.org/research/COVID19_RepurposedTherapeutics_Hussman.pdf
I've heard good responses so far. If it helps, please RT.
My latest comment includes a public health note, along with my optimism about existing mRNA vaccines. As for the new N501Y mutation, these "pre-fusion" vaccine designs conceal that site to begin with, so it seems unlikely to affect antibody protection. https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201220/
Location, location. Most mutations are non-functional. N501Y is on the motif of the RBM that binds ACE2. In mice, it increases infectivity and replication in lower respiratory tract, but the pre-fusion mRNA vaccine designs don't present or rely on the RBM. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41594-020-0483-8
The strain of SARS-CoV-2 found in South Africa also includes the N501Y variant, as well as E484K, which multiple antibodies target. Both of these are in the RBM (see thread). Fortunately, pre-fusion-S mRNA vaccines neither present nor rely on these sites. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.21.20248640v1
Yep! Those are our pals. Two consecutive proline substitutions at 986 and 987. That's what holds the spike in pre-fusion conformation, reduces reliance on the RBD, conceals the RBM, and in English, allows us to be less worried about recent virus mutations. https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/reverse-engineering-source-code-of-the-biontech-pfizer-vaccine/
Me. Excited 
Why? Next vaccines up for approval are from Novavax (recombinant) and J&J (DNA), which like Pfizer & Moderna mRNA vaccines, are based on a spike protein stabilized in pre-fusion conformation (see thread for why that's an encouraging design). https://apnews.com/article/public-health-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-3db1583f627efcd7f06a1762209e6f36
Why? Next vaccines up for approval are from Novavax (recombinant) and J&J (DNA), which like Pfizer & Moderna mRNA vaccines, are based on a spike protein stabilized in pre-fusion conformation (see thread for why that's an encouraging design). https://apnews.com/article/public-health-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-3db1583f627efcd7f06a1762209e6f36
Great thread. Amid the panoply of opinions and rants masquerading as "science," here are some useful studies. https://twitter.com/roby_bhatt/status/1343914243305963520
