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For people asking why Dems are so gloomy, here's the baseline scenario for the next eight years of American government. It's a nightmare:
2021:
-Recession
-COVID
-Gridlock in Congress
-GOP-run statehouses gerrymanders new congressional districts with Trump's disrupted Census
-SCOTUS strikes down Biden executive orders, begins rolling back reproductive rights, civil rights, etc.
-Recession
-COVID
-Gridlock in Congress
-GOP-run statehouses gerrymanders new congressional districts with Trump's disrupted Census
-SCOTUS strikes down Biden executive orders, begins rolling back reproductive rights, civil rights, etc.
2022:
-Dems lose House in midterms, assisted by gerrymandering
-GOP holds Senate in midterms
-GOP state control increases as gerrymandering is intensified nationwide
-Dems lose House in midterms, assisted by gerrymandering
-GOP holds Senate in midterms
-GOP state control increases as gerrymandering is intensified nationwide
2023:
-Debt ceiling showdowns
-Government shutdowns
-SCOTUS now emboldened to strike down almost all executive branch regulation through nondelegation changes
-Any Supreme Court or lower court vacancies from previous four years held open by GOP, no seats filled from here on out
-Debt ceiling showdowns
-Government shutdowns
-SCOTUS now emboldened to strike down almost all executive branch regulation through nondelegation changes
-Any Supreme Court or lower court vacancies from previous four years held open by GOP, no seats filled from here on out
2024:
-Presidential election, likely Dem win in popular vote, likely GOP win in electoral college
-Terrible Dem Senate map, additional seats lost
-GOP holds House
-Many, many GOP state trifectas
-Veto-proof state GOP majorities built on popular vote minorities
-Presidential election, likely Dem win in popular vote, likely GOP win in electoral college
-Terrible Dem Senate map, additional seats lost
-GOP holds House
-Many, many GOP state trifectas
-Veto-proof state GOP majorities built on popular vote minorities
2025:
-McConnell or successor fills SCOTUS vacancies, 7-2 court plausible
-McConnell or successor ends legislative filibuster
-New GOP president (Trump again? Carlson?) safely ignores federal law for appointments, emoluments, etc.
-Integrity of elections seriously threatened
-McConnell or successor fills SCOTUS vacancies, 7-2 court plausible
-McConnell or successor ends legislative filibuster
-New GOP president (Trump again? Carlson?) safely ignores federal law for appointments, emoluments, etc.
-Integrity of elections seriously threatened
2026:
-First chance for Dems to retake House, but outcome uncertain because the party faces restricted elections and extreme gerrymandering
-Mediocre Senate map leaves Senate out of reach
-First chance for Dems to retake House, but outcome uncertain because the party faces restricted elections and extreme gerrymandering
-Mediocre Senate map leaves Senate out of reach
2027:
-Potential conflict between Dem House and GOP administration, but most oversight tools have been eliminated in the Trump administration
-More judges confirmed, judiciary 80%+ GOP
-Potential conflict between Dem House and GOP administration, but most oversight tools have been eliminated in the Trump administration
-More judges confirmed, judiciary 80%+ GOP
2028:
-First chance for Dem trifecta
-Must win gerrymandered House
-Must win unrepresentative Senate
-Must win skewed electoral college
-Must overcome likely 7-2 SCOTUS
-Must overcome massively gerrymandered state legislatures
-Any narrow win likely contested using 2020 precedent
-First chance for Dem trifecta
-Must win gerrymandered House
-Must win unrepresentative Senate
-Must win skewed electoral college
-Must overcome likely 7-2 SCOTUS
-Must overcome massively gerrymandered state legislatures
-Any narrow win likely contested using 2020 precedent
At this point:
-Total GOP control of judiciary
-Civil rights law gone
-EPA gone
-Most regulation gone
-Voting Rights Act gone
-Abortion largely illegal
-Financial reg gone
-Health care expansion impossible
-Inequality up
-Tax code massively favors wealthy
-Total GOP control of judiciary
-Civil rights law gone
-EPA gone
-Most regulation gone
-Voting Rights Act gone
-Abortion largely illegal
-Financial reg gone
-Health care expansion impossible
-Inequality up
-Tax code massively favors wealthy
After 2028, who knows? It's hard to guess at that point. But even if Dems get a chance to govern again this decade - and they might well not, this cycle could repeat another decade - they'll likely be presiding over a broken country, with corruption rampant and democracy stifled.
And please note: this scenario is robust to Dems having huge popular majorities.
It's perfectly plausible that, in 2028, Dems will have won virtually every popular vote for the past 30 years, but have controlled the government for just one brief 2-year stretch: 2008-2010.
It's perfectly plausible that, in 2028, Dems will have won virtually every popular vote for the past 30 years, but have controlled the government for just one brief 2-year stretch: 2008-2010.
This is not inevitable. History is chaotic, unpredictable. Bold Dem leaders could defy anti-democratic mechanisms, wrench us off this course. Catastrophe could strike somehow. Fundamentals could change somehow. The future is impossible to see for certain.
But if the predictable, long-running patterns of US politics continue, this is where we end up. There is no magical cosmic force that will come down and prevent us from going off this cliff. Other places have gone off cliffs of their own, many times before. We're not special.
UPDATE: I am really sorry for bumming everyone out. Don't be bummed out! Be mad! You don't have to accept minority rule. There are tools to avoid this catastrophe. Dems just cannot assume the problem will solve itself, or focus on the small stuff while drifting towards the brink.
Dems need leadership that is cognizant of these compounding structural threats, and is determined to fight them and reverse them PROACTIVELY AND AT EVERY TURN. The structural vise we're in can't be left untouched, to tighten in the background with each successive electoral cycle.
