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We all know that the Senate needs to be reformed, and we all know that reform is going to be difficult. But I have a proposal that might actually be able to get through. The obvious problem with reforming the Senate is that smaller states won't approve any major change, right?
So any proposal to radically alter apportionment will fail. We have to look at something small-bore. So here's my proposal: take ten seats from the ten smallest states, and give them to the ten largest states.
"But Jeff," you say, "Republicans would never go for that! It would cost them seats!" But would it? No, it would not, not immediately.
The ten smallest states are NH, ME, MT, RI, DE, SD, ND, AK, VT, and WY. The delegations from those states spit 11 R, 7 D, 2 I.
The ten smallest states are NH, ME, MT, RI, DE, SD, ND, AK, VT, and WY. The delegations from those states spit 11 R, 7 D, 2 I.
The independents both caucus with Democrats. If we were to eliminate the junior seat from all ten states, you'd be left with a split of 6 R, 4 D -- a net change of 0.
The ten largest states are CA, TX, FL, NY, PA, IL, OH, GA, NC, and MI. Those states are currently split evenly, with 10 D and 10 R. Give each of those ten states an additional senator, and you're looking at three blue states, two red states, and five toss-ups.
And one of the blue states - Michigan - is no gimme for Dems. So you very well could end up with 15 D 15 R - again, a net change of 0.
Now, we'd have to reapportion senate seats any time a state fell out of the top ten or rose out of the bottom ten. But that's a solvable problem (just have the junior seat eliminated when its term ends). You might have a few years with a 102-103 seat Senate, but that's okay.
As for how it would affect the electoral college? Not much! Biden would have netted exactly two electoral votes under this system - and that's because of Georgia, which is no gimme. Only one election in US history - 2000 - would swing on two electoral votes.
So ultimately, this would be a small change that would make things marginally more fair, and that could open the door to further changes someday.
