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A thread on the NYC school situation: I’m also in the “when, not if” camp as far as hitting 3% test-positivity in NYC goes. We’re looking at data up to a week old, when infections are happening right now that won’t show up on the charts until next week. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/12/nyregion/nyc-schools-coronavirus.html#click=https://t.co/8TPXQlJ28b
As the article notes, the 3% cutoff is, by design, a conservative one, meant to protect students and staff in the event of a second wave. It’s interesting to hear that Michael Mulgrew of the UFT is acknowledging that schools have turned out to be safer than he expected.
But unless the mood within the teachers union has changed significantly since September, I’m not anticipating that De Blasio will be able to breach that threshold. The potential for a sick-out is real, and, in the face of rising numbers, possibly warranted.
I.e. as much as I want my kids in school—and I do!—it makes no real sense to push back the threshold to 5% if we’re not going to be taking the sorts of steps that will actually turn the numbers around. At best it would be another couple of weeks of kicking the can down the road.
It’s probably better, in my inexpert opinion, as much as I hate to say it, to close schools when we hit 3%, and use the shock of that closure to force the measures we actually need: closing restaurants, gyms, churches, synagogues, museums, etc.
That would give us a fighting chance to reopen in-person just after the New Year. It’s not great, but all in all, it wouldn’t be the worst time for a shutdown, since a lot of school days between now and then would be chewed up anyway by pre-existing holidays.
I just don’t see any other realistic way forward, especially since we have steadfastly refused to learn from last spring that you have to act based on what the data will show at least a week from now, not what it showed a week in the past. /end
P.S. We would do well to remember that the worse things get, the longer the recovery will likely take. A 1000 case/day peak in the epi curve is not just better for everyone’s health than a 2000 case/day peak. It also means we shouldn’t need strict interventions to last as long.
