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THREAD. President Donald Trump lost his bid to win re-election, and when he leaves the White House most of the distinctly Trumpian elements of his approach to economic policy will leave with him.
My latest Bloomberg column: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-12/trumponomics-won-t-outlive-trump?sref=QK42wmXj @bopinion
My latest Bloomberg column: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-12/trumponomics-won-t-outlive-trump?sref=QK42wmXj @bopinion
2/ The message that some in the GOP will take away from their surprising strength on election day is simple: If it weren’t for the coronavirus pandemic, the strong U.S. economy would have given Trump the victory.
3/ But Trump’s main legislative accomplishment — his 2017 tax cuts for corporations and households — was straight out of the standard Republican playbook, and had nothing to do with the president’s conservative populism or economic nationalism.
4/ By contrast, Trump’s hostility to immigration was distinctly populist — and will probably have staying power in the GOP, to the potential detriment of the economy.
5/ I hope the next few years see an internal battle in the GOP over this issue, but I expect pro-immigration Republicans to avoid it. Pro-growth Republicans should be making the case that the U.S. needs more immigrants.
6/ If the Republican Party doesn’t take down the “immigrants aren’t welcome” sign that Trump hung on the Statue of Liberty, the U.S.’s role as a magnet for some of the world’s most ambitious, daring and hardest-working migrants will diminish, threatening future prosperity.
7/ Apart from hostility toward immigration, the other notably Trumpian aspects of economic policy will not have staying power with the mainstream GOP.
8/ Under pressure from business leaders, I expect the center of gravity in the party to recover its pre-Trump support of free trade and globalization.
9/ Many in the GOP will continue to push for U.S. businesses to move factories and operations out of China, and some of the more populist Republicans will support measures aimed at returning those activities to the U.S.
10/ But hawkishness toward China is not the same as aversion to trade. The days of Republican support for tariffs against U.S. allies are over.
11/ Republicans will continue to be concerned about the spending side of the debt ledger, and will resume their attempts to cut future spending on Medicare and Social Security. Trump froze these efforts, but the GOP’s opposition to entitlement-program cuts will not outlast him.
12/ Some Republican politicians are interpreting the election results as evidence that the future of the GOP is as the party of workers, not businesses elites. The GOP should put workers closer to the center of their policy agenda.
13/ But doing so would not be a continuation of Trump’s policies. His actual accomplishments for the working class are scant. He didn’t deliver on promises to reduce drug prices and strengthen healthcare.
14/ Trump's promised manufacturing revival never materialized — his trade wars actually cost manufacturing jobs.
Fin/ Trump did put the working class at the center of his rhetoric. Now, the party needs to translate this rhetorical emphasis into a policy agenda. If it can, it would be building on Trump’s presidency — by moving away from it.
My column: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-12/trumponomics-won-t-outlive-trump?sref=QK42wmXj @bopinion
My column: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-12/trumponomics-won-t-outlive-trump?sref=QK42wmXj @bopinion
