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/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Javier Báez, SS
Chicago #Cubs
27 years old (28 on 12/1/20)
Drafted: 2011, Round 1; Pick 9 (CHC)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
59 G
235 PA
222 AB
.203/.238/.360
8 HR
27 R
24 RBI
3 SB
.256 wOBA
57 wRC+
0.0 WAR
3.0 BB%
31.9 K%
59 G
235 PA
222 AB
.203/.238/.360
8 HR
27 R
24 RBI
3 SB
.256 wOBA
57 wRC+
0.0 WAR
3.0 BB%
31.9 K%
Javier Baez finished 2nd in the MVP voting just two seasons ago.
He is also just a year removed from batting .281 w/ 29 HR & an All-Star selection in 2019.
So naturally, Baez led the NL in outs made & ranked LAST among qualified batters in OPS in 2020.
He is also just a year removed from batting .281 w/ 29 HR & an All-Star selection in 2019.
So naturally, Baez led the NL in outs made & ranked LAST among qualified batters in OPS in 2020.
The most obvious place to start our investigation is likely also the correct place: plate discipline.
Scouts have been doubting Baez since the start of his career due to his long swing & poor chase rate.
But in true unicorn fashion, he has overcome his flaws year over year.
Scouts have been doubting Baez since the start of his career due to his long swing & poor chase rate.
But in true unicorn fashion, he has overcome his flaws year over year.
2020 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 19.1%
Contact: 63.8%
Swing: 52.9%
O-Swing: 40.6%
Z-Swing: 73.0%
O-Contact: 52.0%
Z-Contact: 74.6%
Spoiler alert: this is awful
However, this is also nothing new. Par for the course, as one would say.
SwStr: 19.1%
Contact: 63.8%
Swing: 52.9%
O-Swing: 40.6%
Z-Swing: 73.0%
O-Contact: 52.0%
Z-Contact: 74.6%
Spoiler alert: this is awful
However, this is also nothing new. Par for the course, as one would say.
Oddly enough, 40.6% is Baez best O-Swing% (swings outside of the K zone) since 2015.
But still 10% points from the MLB average.
He also posted his worst K% (31.9%) & SwStr% (19.1%, MLB is 11.3%) since 2014.
But believe it or not, the main issue for Baez was his Contact%
But still 10% points from the MLB average.
He also posted his worst K% (31.9%) & SwStr% (19.1%, MLB is 11.3%) since 2014.
But believe it or not, the main issue for Baez was his Contact%
Contact% by year
2018 - 68.5%
2019 - 67.7%
2020 - 63.8%
For those wondering, the league average was 75.3%
The question is why.
Baez is just 27 years old, so it’s not like age is attacking his reaction time.
Why don’t we ask him
2018 - 68.5%
2019 - 67.7%
2020 - 63.8%
For those wondering, the league average was 75.3%
The question is why.
Baez is just 27 years old, so it’s not like age is attacking his reaction time.
Why don’t we ask him
Baez (among others) blamed their struggles on an inability to access in-game video.
“Without video... I feel like I was back in rookie league trying to figure out who I was.”
“It was just so different & confusing this year. I don't know what to think about...”
“Without video... I feel like I was back in rookie league trying to figure out who I was.”
“It was just so different & confusing this year. I don't know what to think about...”
So how much did this really impact Baez?
Tough to say. But other high profile hitters like JD Martinez have said the same thing.
Cubs hitting coach A.Iapoce seemed to embrace the change citing that not having in-game video has made better baseball conversations in the dugout.
Tough to say. But other high profile hitters like JD Martinez have said the same thing.
Cubs hitting coach A.Iapoce seemed to embrace the change citing that not having in-game video has made better baseball conversations in the dugout.
No doubt one of those conversations was about the Cubs team wide philosophy to take more pitches.
Baez saw 3.87 pitches per at bat this season, up from 3.52.
In addition he swung at the first pitch just 39.1% of the time (down from 48.3).
Baez saw 3.87 pitches per at bat this season, up from 3.52.
In addition he swung at the first pitch just 39.1% of the time (down from 48.3).
It was likely a mistake to take a naturally aggressive “feel” hitter like Baez & force him out of his comfort zone.
All of MLB had to deal w/ the video blackout, but perhaps Baez routine was altered too much for such a short season.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
All of MLB had to deal w/ the video blackout, but perhaps Baez routine was altered too much for such a short season.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 18.4%
GB - 49.7%
FB - 32.0%
Pull - 46.3%
Middle - 30.2%
Opp - 23.5%
Hard Contact - 36.2%
Med Contact - 46.3%
Soft Contact - 17.4%
Exit Velocity - 89.4 mph
Max EV - 116.0 mph
Barrel % - 8.1
Launch Angle - 10.3
sd(LA) - 31.1
LD - 18.4%
GB - 49.7%
FB - 32.0%
Pull - 46.3%
Middle - 30.2%
Opp - 23.5%
Hard Contact - 36.2%
Med Contact - 46.3%
Soft Contact - 17.4%
Exit Velocity - 89.4 mph
Max EV - 116.0 mph
Barrel % - 8.1
Launch Angle - 10.3
sd(LA) - 31.1
Baez poor plate discipline has always required him to maintain optimal batted ball quality to succeed.
2020 is what happens when that is missing.
- 2nd Lowest EV of career
- Highest Max EV of career
- Barrel% down 4.4
- sd(LA) up 6.5°
Inconsistency leads to poor performance.
2020 is what happens when that is missing.
- 2nd Lowest EV of career
- Highest Max EV of career
- Barrel% down 4.4
- sd(LA) up 6.5°
Inconsistency leads to poor performance.
Obviously the nature of having the lowest EV but highest Max EV is perfect for Baez chaotic season.
Yet there was no real change to his LD/GB/FB output.
The real indicators are Barrel% & sd(LA), which happen to tie together quite often.
Yet there was no real change to his LD/GB/FB output.
The real indicators are Barrel% & sd(LA), which happen to tie together quite often.
A recap for anyone new to the series or refresher for anyone else:
Barrel% measures the a specific range of LA & EV (starting at 98 mph between 26 degrees & 30 degrees, & expanding outward from there)
The higher the EV, the wider range of LA (at 100 mph the LA is 24-33 degrees)
Barrel% measures the a specific range of LA & EV (starting at 98 mph between 26 degrees & 30 degrees, & expanding outward from there)
The higher the EV, the wider range of LA (at 100 mph the LA is 24-33 degrees)
sd(LA) measures the “tightness” of a players launch angle.
Avg launch angle is somewhat useless because we don’t need to know the angle in which a GB or a pop up was hit.
We want to know the consistency at which a hitter is striking the ball. sd(LA) measures bat control
Good?
Avg launch angle is somewhat useless because we don’t need to know the angle in which a GB or a pop up was hit.
We want to know the consistency at which a hitter is striking the ball. sd(LA) measures bat control
Good?
So back to Baez.
Even though his LD/GB/FB% have not changed, he was hitting the ball so inconsistently which led to a lot of poor contact.
Thus the lowest avg EV vs highest Max EV.
The fact that his avg LA,
PopUp% & Pull% were elevated suggests that he was likely pressing.
Even though his LD/GB/FB% have not changed, he was hitting the ball so inconsistently which led to a lot of poor contact.
Thus the lowest avg EV vs highest Max EV.
The fact that his avg LA,
PopUp% & Pull% were elevated suggests that he was likely pressing.
Let’s see how pitchers were attacking Baez:
Fastball (50.9%)
.255 (.224 xBA)
.398 SLG (.361 xSLG)
Breaking (41.5%)
.157 (.186 xBA)
.294 SLG (.342 xSLG)
Offspeed (7.6%)
.182 (.315 xBA)
.500 SLG (.627 xSLG)
2019:
FB (55.3%)
BRK (34.8%)
OFF (9.9%)
Fastball (50.9%)
.255 (.224 xBA)
.398 SLG (.361 xSLG)
Breaking (41.5%)
.157 (.186 xBA)
.294 SLG (.342 xSLG)
Offspeed (7.6%)
.182 (.315 xBA)
.500 SLG (.627 xSLG)
2019:
FB (55.3%)
BRK (34.8%)
OFF (9.9%)
It shouldn’t be a surprise that these numbers are trending down based on what we have already discussed.
But worth noting that SP’s increased their slider usage against Baez to 30.6% in 2020 (up from 27.9)
He struggled vs power pitchers mightily (FB/SL) more than finesse SP
But worth noting that SP’s increased their slider usage against Baez to 30.6% in 2020 (up from 27.9)
He struggled vs power pitchers mightily (FB/SL) more than finesse SP
Did the Cubs new philosophy force Baez to let good pitches to hit go by?
He had a career worst BB% in 2020 (3%), so instead of the desired effect of working the count & getting on base, Baez simply crippled his own chances.
Like a rigged carnival game, he never had a chance.
He had a career worst BB% in 2020 (3%), so instead of the desired effect of working the count & getting on base, Baez simply crippled his own chances.
Like a rigged carnival game, he never had a chance.
Think about it.
Baez is, & will always be, a strikeout machine.
But now you are asking a low contact, low discipline hitter to start in a pitcher’s count?
That is precisely when “chase” pitches will be thrown, which Baez is incapable of laying off of.
A recipe for failure.
Baez is, & will always be, a strikeout machine.
But now you are asking a low contact, low discipline hitter to start in a pitcher’s count?
That is precisely when “chase” pitches will be thrown, which Baez is incapable of laying off of.
A recipe for failure.
It would be hard to imagine the Cubs will continue this awful experiment of forcing a square leg into a round hole.
As far as video analysis goes? Who knows? Tough to gauge the impact after 60-games.
But talent does not disappear overnight at age 27.
As far as video analysis goes? Who knows? Tough to gauge the impact after 60-games.
But talent does not disappear overnight at age 27.
2018 Baez is likely not coming back, as that was a perfect storm for his best performance.
But from 2015-19, Baez' lowest batting average was .273
It’s clear something was just off this last season & I would bank on a bounce back in his year 28 season in 2021.
But from 2015-19, Baez' lowest batting average was .273
It’s clear something was just off this last season & I would bank on a bounce back in his year 28 season in 2021.
I don’t want to call Baez a “bargain,”because there is certainly risk here.
But he is currently (11/12) being drafted 75.40 as the 11th SS off the board.
He is unlikely to be cheaper than he is this offseason.
You may need a backup plan, but this seems like a sound investment
But he is currently (11/12) being drafted 75.40 as the 11th SS off the board.
He is unlikely to be cheaper than he is this offseason.
You may need a backup plan, but this seems like a sound investment
What to expect from Javier Baez in 2021:
600 AB
.260/.302/.478
30 HR
82 R
92 RBI
13 SB
If I am going to “throw out” 2020 for any player, it might be Baez.
If Chicago simply lets him go back to being him, I would expect a full bounce back.
600 AB
.260/.302/.478
30 HR
82 R
92 RBI
13 SB
If I am going to “throw out” 2020 for any player, it might be Baez.
If Chicago simply lets him go back to being him, I would expect a full bounce back.
