Warning: EU migration rant. I'm preparing a speech on British access to EU labour markets post-Brexit for @InfoUMA tomorrow. I just looked at @GOVUK's new migration plans. Angry twitter Cami is back. 1/

Basically, the government is trying to sell you that they have moved from a free-for-all migration system that allowed EU citizens to wander around the UK claiming benefits to the detriment of hard-working non-EU folks. They got tough on migration.They introduced a points system!

Only, that is not true. First, and I know I am repeating myself, EU free movement was never, ever, an unconditional regime. People had to be working or studying to be able to move. They could also be looking for a job or retired, in which case they had to prove they had enough

For the sake of objectivity, I will say that, like any other migration regime, it had its flaws. Its most important one, from a UK perspective, was how far the ECJ had allowed some categories of people to use the system to their benefit. 3/

This was based on the idea of EU citizenship, which, OK, did not work for the UK. But, even before @David_Cameron started his pledges to reform the system, the ECJ had backtracked on more liberal interpretations of access to benefits etc. and had make it harder to abuse it. 4/

But I won't go in rounds about Dano et al. Let's dive into the points-based system. How will it change EU-UK migration trends? 5/

First, these trends have already changed, thanks to COVID-19. A lot of the low-skilled migration that made the country's economy so strong is already gone and will take some time to come back. 6/

Second, once it does (Pret will not stay closed forever), the UK will find itself in a deliciously ironic situation: it will have to apply the category of "shortage occupation" to those coming to work at the hospitality/restaurant sector. Cue: young, tax paying EU people 7/

...who, incidentally, will not have a salary cap or need to go through the more stringent skilled workers scheme. Same goes for doctors and nurses but I do hope for them they meet the salary thresholds. Lower-paid care workers will benefit too 8/

EU skilled workers, like lawyers and engineers will still be able to go and work in London as before. I am not familiar with salary averages in the rest of the country, but I'd say thresholds are likely to skew the talent pool even more, so London wins and others lose. 9/

From there you can derive all sort of financial and social implications, like shortage of infrastructures, an over-priced housing market etc. I am not a UK expert so I will leave it to others 10/

Finally, students: assuming that the Erasmus programme will continue in some shape, very little will change for those seeking to study in the UK under such scheme. For non-Erasmus students, fees will increase, making UK universities less attractive for European talent Ends/