Read on Twitter
1/13 Now when the war is over and the details of the peace deal are announced (although some of them are still unclear), it’s time to think about several outcomes for the global/regional powers and one main lesson for Azerbaijan and Armenia:
2/13 This peace deal once again proved the status of the South Caucasus as Russia’s backyard for its role in achieving ceasefire and the newly established status of the peacekeeping force in NK. At least for the next 5 years Russia will retain its strong presence in the region.
3/13 Turkey gained a new status in the region by getting direct connection to Az through Nakhchivan corridor, joining the peacebuilding process as a part of Monitoring Center and possibly opening borders with Armenia. Its absolute popularity in Azerbaijan will remain uncontested.
4/13 The stability in the region will depend on the future developments in the Russian-Turkish relations (and yes, they are full of many undercurrents). Will the two states coordinate? Some ideas on this question written before the second Geneva talks: https://twitter.com/nazringadimova/status/1321757204333121537
5/13 The future of OSCE Minsk Group is vague (is it dead or was it stillborn from the very beginning?). During the conflict the US was busy with elections, the EU was dealing with pandemic and, as in 2008 during August war, the developments of Karabakh war showed the impotence +
6/13 (or unwillingness) of Western powers to take real steps in the solution of regional conflict. Those few efforts by Secretary Pompeo and President Macron were either too ineffective, or too biased. Today the role of the West in the region is challenged, to say the least.
7/13 Armenia experiences very hard, maybe the worst days in its history of independence. The country pays the price of its maximalism,and it will take years (or decades) for the public to accept this defeat. But if thinking strategically, Armenia can gain a lot too, from opening+
8/13 the borders and establishing economic relations with Az and Tr to joining regional projects and diversifying its foreign policy orientations. The trauma of the war will be there, so governments and grassroots initiatives will need to work on the reconstruction of dialogue.
9/13 Azerbaijan restored justice with the blood of its soldiers and the skill of its diplomacy. Azerbaijani IDPs will return to their homes, control over seven districts plus Shusha will be fully restored and the connection of the mainland with Nakhchivan will be established.
10/13 The national spirit is high and many well-educated Azerbaijanis living in the West already expressed their willingness to come back and build a new,strong and prosperous country. This spirit will help us focus on other social issues and get other, non-military achievements.
11/13 What is uniting both Arm and Az societies now is skepticism about Russian peace-builders in the region. Despite nearly 30 years of negotiations we did not use existing opportunities to compromise and solve the conflict without participation of the third parties.
12/13 This is the main lesson of this war: coordination and unity is the only way for us and the whole region to bulid strong and peaceful South Caucasus. Now it is important to put all of our efforts jointly to reconstruct trust, rebuild economic ties, restore human relations +
13/13 and most importantly focus on commonalities and not differences - for the sake of independent and prosperous South Caucasus. It will be a long and difficult process, but there is no other choice left for us to reach long-lasting stability and peace. END.
