1/12 Thread on the opposition. The latest round of by-elections suggests the same trend that has defined the opposition vote share for 24 months continues: a multitude of smaller parties growing, primarily at the expense of the DA.

2/12 The reasons for this are complex. One is a retreat into various identity niches by opposition voters. For a long time the DA held opposition voters together, through a unifying message, growth, size and coherence.

3/12 Opposition voters felt safe in the DA, well-represented and meaningful. But all those elements are cracked, to different degrees, for the DA. Some are being repaired but there are questions as to whether in the right way.

4/12 One of the biggest cracks is decline. The DA is like a shark, it must keep moving forward. Decline is a death spiral. It immediately causes people to start looking elsewhere.

5/12 The result is that the DA is suffering from a thousand small cuts - Good, the FF+, ACDP, even the PA - are taking small bites out of it. And there is more to come on that front (Mashaba). Opposition voters, brought under a DA banner, are returning to where they came from.

6/12 They are retreating because these small, primarily identity-based havens offer certainty, which is what people want. The irony is that they are weakening opposition to the ANC in doing so, even if it feels safe.

7/12 Important to understand some of DA’s losses due to local factors, in George and JHB, for example, the DA has been a mess, so that not necessarily due to any broader problem, but a problem none the less, one that the DA cannot afford.

8/12 It is also symptomatic of a possible misunderstanding on the DA’s part. People united under the DA because it was focused outside the opposition- on the ANC and being an alternative. If it focuses now on the opposition, at the expense of the ANC, it will continue to shrink.

9/12 The DA’s review was very clear on another important, related factor: The DA must never give voters the feeling it is choosing between race groups. That too is a death spiral. Have to be for everyone.

10/12 It is extremely hard to do - to maintain the discipline not to pour all your energy into small territorial fights. You can’t ignore them entirely but you must project yourself as bigger and stronger than any one of them.

11/12 The DA needs two things right now: momentum and leadership. Both are hard asks. On leadership, the party lacks real star power, at national and provincial level. On momentum, it lacks a mechanism to turn the tide.

12/12 So it is yet to be seen if the DA can do this, or if Steenhuisen has the gravitas to pull that off. Next 12 months going to be critical. One thing you can be sure of: the real winner in these by-elections is the ANC. A divided opposition is exactly what it wants.