Thanks to Turkey’s support, Azerbaijan’s war with Armenia has changed the de facto borders of the post-Soviet space - an action that Russia has long considered its exclusive right.

In the Caucasus, influence is shifting

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The ceasefire deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia that hands large amounts of territory back to Baku was brokered by Moscow, but was only necessary thanks to Turkey’s muscling in to a region that Russia views as its backyard.

“Commander-in-chief of the victorious army and defence minister of Azerbaijan’s closest ally!” read the caption of an official photograph with Turkey’s defence minister published this week

“The geopolitical consequences are disastrous not only for Armenia, but also for Russia. The Russians’ client and ally was the loser. The Turkish ally won convincingly.”

Azerbaijan gambled that Turkey’s support meant Russia would not risk military intervention. And it was right