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It is a little odd that I'm still seeing "Democrats just didn't mobilize enough" takes but I guess people had them ready to go.
Biden got 77 million votes and counting! Turnout was really high!
Nobody shuts up about GOP mobilization and how Trump turned out the base but like...Biden got a lot more votes?
I mean I'm not convinced. Door-to-door would have flipped, what, Maine? Iowa? South Carolina? North Carolina? Montana? I don't know about that. House races? Which ones? https://twitter.com/PhillyDemMPA/status/1326746333827493889?s=19
I'm not so sure Biden's internals were off. A lot of their statements and actions make a lot of sense in retrospect if they saw this result coming, down to the posture of confidence but with leaks fretting about Hispanic numbers. https://twitter.com/JonWalkerDC/status/1326747822390083584?s=19
I am just skeptical that door-knocking is going to flip a 7-point margin in a high-turnout, high-salience race with a ton of spending. But hey I could be wrong. I don't have a study handy. But otherwise thus far we're really just talking Cunningham/Tillis and (potentially) GA.
And ok maybe Maine, if that's more like a 3-point race.
Gina Ortiz Jones got way more votes than Will Hurd got in 2016! Could she have "mobilized" even more, I mean, sure, presumably, but what's the evidence that's a likely counterfactual?
I'd be surprised if, when the voter file comes out, Democratic campaigns won't look at their scrapped in-person-door-knocking lists and say "welp, pretty much all those people voted".
"Hm this Facebook page says Gina Ortiz Jones is putting chemtrails in the drinking water."
(Knock knock)
"What's that? A stranger campaigning for Gina Ortiz Jones! Why I'd love to chat. She's NOT putting chemtrails in the drinking water? Well sign me up." https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1326754612746072064?s=19
(Knock knock)
"What's that? A stranger campaigning for Gina Ortiz Jones! Why I'd love to chat. She's NOT putting chemtrails in the drinking water? Well sign me up." https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1326754612746072064?s=19
Again I don't really know. It just seems to me like people have these very very long-standing things about mobilization and Facebook ads and investing downballot that they apply to pretty much any election regardless of the particulars.
And in this case I think it's hard to separate from "Democrats want what the bad polls said back".
Is there any way this could have looked...not like this? Probably. Via Facebook ads and knocking on doors? IDK I am a fairly deeply skeptical person.
Yeah I mean...even high turnout is not MAXIMAL turnout. Maybe not even maximal PLAUSIBLE turnout. But IDK, how high (and D-skewed) could a counterfactual be? I guess that's the question. https://twitter.com/BHIndepMO/status/1326757823783399424?s=19
Yeah I mean I'm sure there's little direct evidence about the efficacy of phone canvassing vs. in-person during...a pandemic...and really high turnout anyway...but that sounds right. https://twitter.com/AntBejarano/status/1326758593119608832?s=19
That's not to say this is the best possible election outcome for Democrats. But I think you have to look for like, systematic things, general environment things, overarching messaging...
Or IDK. Maybe there's a study somewhere that says door-knocking plus Facebook ads is enough to flip seven points. I will recant if so...and if it's a good study...
Yeah I just think "Trump and Trump-adjacent stories being the biggest news in the country for five years" is going to beat out "knocking on some doors" when it comes to turnout effects. https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1326773960726470658?s=19
