Restaurants in Chicago (and much of the northern part of the US) are going to go through a very hard time... beginning next week.

We've all known this is coming -- cold, wet weather combined with a spike in Covid cases means that both indoor and outdoor dining are untenable. /1

Add to that the usual holidays in November and December which effectively make those months 3 weeks in normal times -- and subtract out all of the holiday parties and busy weekends -- and it makes it actually worse than the April / May shelter in place. /2

At that time a robust To Go operation was enough to sustain a reasonable level of employment. Now, with every restaurant adjusting to To Go at once as the only option, demand leveling, and shorter days -- well it's actually more difficult to plan. /3

Typically, many restaurants in Chicago plan for January - March to be a break-even, light staff, fix and repair time of year. This year I cannot really imagine that 25% or 50% occupancy would be enough to open, even if it were safe to do so at that time. /4

So I think you will see many restaurants 'mothball' their operations from mid-December through Spring -- barring any sort of widespread vaccine or truly effective therapeutics.

This will be terrible most of all for the dedicated hospitality teams across the city. /5

Consolidating operations, expanding creative and elevated To Go, and marketing directly to consumers will be the key to surviving the winter.

It's important to note that starting a restaurant back up is not like flipping a light switch. As an example: /6

We were set to do an Alinea pop up at the Ace hotel in Chicago. We chose to do that because there was more space and we could seat 60-70 people spread out more than 8 feet apart. We hired video and lighting consultants, moved all of our furniture in, and hired musicians /7

Total investment --> around $80k to get going and make it creatively great.

Obviously we shut that down which was sad and costly not just for TAG and our team but also Ace and all of those creative people with whom we'd collaborate.

Now, even if indoor dining reopens.../8

...we cannot do that pop-up. Because all of the moving parts of the production are on hold... then the holidays remove a week in Nov and December and the economics no longer work.

For the very first time since this whole thing started we are truly backed into a corner... /9

...with only one choice --> Alinea To Go.

There is clarity on what to do... but no flexibility.

Time to begin planning for 2021... in the meantime we'll renovate interiors, ramp up carryout, and see what we come up with creatively.