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In 2016, Trump won electors in eight different contests in which his margin of victory was less than five and a half points:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Nebraska’s Second CD
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia
In 2020, Trump lost six of those eight contests.
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Nebraska’s Second CD
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia
In 2020, Trump lost six of those eight contests.
As pointed out earlier, Trump’s margin of victory in 2020 was smaller than his 2016 margin even in most of the states that he won both times.
But because he won so narrowly in some states in 2016, his underperformance in 2020 caused some of his closest states to flip blue.
But because he won so narrowly in some states in 2016, his underperformance in 2020 caused some of his closest states to flip blue.
An airplane cruising at 30,000 feet can afford to lose little bit of altitude.
But a plane that is barely off the ground can’t. It’ll crash.
And that, my friends, is my analogy for the Trump campaign.
But a plane that is barely off the ground can’t. It’ll crash.
And that, my friends, is my analogy for the Trump campaign.
He barely won in 2016. Never had good approval ratings. He underperformed his 2016 margins in most places. And it cost him in the places that created his electoral winning margin from four years ago.
