Great question, @juliagalef! Here is my take.

Imagine you are waiting for a subway train that usually comes every 10 min. It's been 25 min. You may wonder:

"Is this train coming or is there something wrong? Perhaps, I should get out and take a cab."

1/n https://twitter.com/juliagalef/status/1326690278963634179

Similarly, when the networks called PA and the Electoral College for Biden, traders may have thought that the markets will settle and pay out. It's been 4 days and they have not. Perhaps they won't pay out for a while.

Why would PI not settle the markets?

2/n

Two options:

1) Trump may somehow win, e.g. upon a recount.

2) Predictit may not resolve the markets, or resolve them in an unexpected way, or at least take their sweet time.

3/n

1) Trump EC win is not happening. Decision desks know what they are doing. See Mishkin, Arnon.

2) Predictit, OTOH, may be wise to take their time. After all, its continued existence depends on a no-action letter by a branch of the Trump admin.

4/n

Wishful thinking is a strong drug. My hypothesis is that MAGA traders mistakenly take the lack of resolution as a signal that Trump may still win, whereas PI are just taking their time.

5/n