Thread by @HelvidiusPrisc, Earlier, I tweeted about the chance of a tie in the Electoral [...]

Earlier, I tweeted about the chance of a tie in the Electoral College. If Trump wins AZ, GA, and WI, all of which are extremely close with voting irregularities, then the EC would be tied at 269-269.

So what happens if the EC is tied? Let's take a look at it...(1/)

The US Constitution in Article 2, Section 1, Clause 3 specifies what happens if no candidate receives a majority of the EC votes. The 12th Amendment amended this clause. Part of the 12th Amendment (underlined) was amended by the 20th Amendment. (2/)

Let's break this down piece by piece. First, this process is triggered by there not being a majority of the EC votes going to one candidate. In that case, the vote is sent to the US House of Representatives. up to 3 candidates can be considered. See highlighted portion. (3/)

Next, the House votes for the President, but each state casts one vote decided by the Representatives from those states. (4/)

There must be a quorum of 2/3 of the states in order to vote. For a state to be present, a "member or members" must be present. Although there need only be 2/3 of the state delegations present, a majority of all states is required to elect the President. (5/)

Let's skip over the amended portion for a moment. The Vice President would be elected by a vote in the Senate by each Senator, not by each state's delegation. A quorum is 2/3 of the Senate, and a majority of the whole is necessary to elect the VP. (6/)

For the amended part, I'm not going to get into the 20th Amendment other than to say that if there is no President and Vice-President, the office falls into the Presidential line of succession in which the Speaker of the House is 3rd in line. (7/)

So, let's look at what would happen if the EC ends up tied. The House is sworn in before the EC vote, so this year's elected Representatives would be voting. There are some interesting races still uncalled that could impact the vote. (8/)

The first question is who would schedule the vote? The Speaker has all of the power in the House. We have no idea who the Speaker will be, but it looks like the Democrats will retain a slim majority in the House. Pelosi isn't the most popular person in the Democrat caucus. (9/)

Might the Republicans join with some Democrats to elect a moderate Dem (unicorn) as Speaker? Who knows, but whoever is Speaker will have to schedule a vote. Will that person be eager to do so since the Speaker would serve as President until one is chosen? (10/)

The 12th Amendment does not require a vote within a set period of time. I'll assume the Speaker would bow to growing political pressure to schedule a vote in a somewhat timely manner. (11/)

The next question is whether there would be a quorum. This is an issue b/c Democrats are not above skipping town to prevent a vote. Remember the time they did it in Texas and ran to Oklahoma to avoid a vote they would lose? (12/)

I have gathered some data from Ballotopedia and others. This data shows Republicans with control of 26 state delegations. They would show up. (13/)

There are going to be 3 states--MI, MN, PA--with ties. With at least 1 Republican in each state delegation, they would show up. So that leaves us at 29 states that would undoubtedly show up. (14/)

Of the 20 Dem-controlled state delegations, there are 8 states with complete Dem control. Let's assume they wouldn't show up. That leaves 12 states with at least 1 Republican who would presumably show up for the vote. That puts us at 41 states and a quorum. (15/)

Before talking about the vote, let's talk a moment about what they political climate would be if we get to this point. Recounts and/or SCOTUS would have to flip AZ, WI, and GA. After the despicable press has called it for Biden, the left will view the election as stolen. (16/)

If there is one thing we have learned about the left, it's that they will get violent. I believe their violence in this situation would far exceed what we've seen in the past 6 months. I believe they would be killing people in the street. Their lists are not just "talk." (17/)

Then, with large amounts of civil unrest that could be bordering on civil war if the right finally gets fed up with the burning, rioting, looting, and murdering, the House will be voting. Imagine the intense pressure that will be brought on Republicans to vote for Biden. (18/)

Imagine being a representative in a state with a 1 Republican advantage. Imagine the press including Fox News demanding the Republicans vote for Biden because of the threat of civil war. I don't think we have any doubts that the left would resort to this form of extortion. (19/)

And if there is one thing we've learned about Republicans, there is a large segment of them that have no spine. With this in mind, let's evaluate the numbers. Dems have control of 20 state delegations. There is no situation in which a Dem would flip his vote. None. (20/)

So, let's start with states that are tied. PA, MI, and MN. All it would take is "convincing" one Republican in blue-ish states to vote for Biden. I think that happens. Add 3 to column for the Dems giving them 3. (21/)

The other state is Iowa. After 2018, Dems had a 3-1 lead. One seat was flipped red, one was maintained red and one blue. For the other seat with almost 400k votes, the Republican leads by 48. This one could be tied or safe Republican. (22/)

For Iowa, I'm going to call it a tie because as we ALWAYS see, Dems always pick up votes after the initial election results. With the surge in Republican voting in Iowa, I'm going to list it as a tie in the Presidential vote b/c the Republicans will recognize the shift red. (23/)

Now let's look at the Republican states. For the sake of this analysis, I'm going to call Republicans states with greater than a 2 seat advantage safe. There 16 safe red states: AL, AR, FL, IN, KY, LA, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TE, TX, UT, and WV. (24/)

Some states have 2 or fewer seats because of their size: AK, ID, MT, ND, SD, and WY. I'm going to call these safe, but those with only 1 vote are wild cards (AK, MT, ND, SD, WY). That gives Republicans 22 states. (25/)

For the states that are bigger with a 2 seat advantage, we have GA (8-6), KS (3-1), MS (3-1), and WI (5-3). Of those, I think MS is safe. GA is likely safe, but these Senate runoffs are going to be hell. KS is the weirdest state of them all but it's safe. WI? Tossup. (26/)

For the states with 2 seat leads, I'll call it 3 safe and 1 tossup. That leaves Republicans with 25 states with one more necessary to win. (27/)

All of this leaves us with 25 red states to 23 blue states with IA and WI left to determine the next President. If IA ends up in a tie and WI flips just one representative, neither side can get to 26.

What happens then? (28/)

The House keeps voting. I mentioned earlier the pressure that will be applied. Imagine it now. Imagine the backroom dealings that would be made. How it turns out is anyone's guess. (29/)

Many Republicans think this in the bag if it goes to the House. It is not by any stretch of the imagination. Not even close. (30/)

For the Senate, right now it is split 50-48 Republican. If the Republicans win one or both of the GA seats, Republicans will have the advantage in the Senate. The same pressures will be applied to them, but since they are voting for VP, not to the same extent. (31/)

Since 67 Senators need to be present for a quorum, I doubt a vote would ever occur if Republicans have a 51-49 or 52-48 majority.

If it is split 50-50 and no Senator flips from his party, there is no way to break the tie since there is no VP. (32/)

In the end, the President would eventually appoint a VP since one isn't likely to be elected by the Senate. (33/)

This is a long thread, I know. I wanted to do it because, as I said a few tweets above, a Trump victory through the House is not a given. It would rely on Republicans having a spine in the face of nationwide violence and civil unrest. I have no confidence in them. (34/)

Lastly, please feel free to correct my ConLaw, @CoxsTench, if I have made any mistakes.

And I'm man enough to admit that I had to look up a few state abbreviations.... (fin)

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