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Thread: @LarrySabato’s “Crystal Ball” and @CookPolitical costed Republicans the U.S. House of Representatives by putting non-vulnerable Republicans on defense. Here’s an (incomplete) list of their horrifically off predictions:
The @NRCC did not need to be on defense in most of the races they spent heavily in. Somehow, these pundits managed to miss every single competitive race-all in the Democrats’ direction.
@InsideElections was even worse, believe it or not. The greatest evidence of this is in AR-02, where French Hill (R) won reelection by 11.6% (which is apparently a “Tossup” to Inside Elections, and competitive to Sabato and Cook.
Perhaps the @NRCC should not pay attention to these completely partisan pundits who are wish casting in their predictions. The senate races they predicted were just as bad/worse (i.e.: “competitive” AL, AK, KS, SC, MT. (cc: @mattdizwhitlock)
It makes me furious to see people like @LarrySabato taking victory laps after just getting 40-60 House/Senate predictions completely wrong.
Correction: on my graphic, IL-13 should be “IL-14”, same with NJ-03 as “NJ-02”.
