There are a lot of unknowns about the crisis in #Ethiopia.

But enough IS known that there is no excuse for anything other than urgent, decisive international action.

Inertia cannot be justified by imperfect or incomplete information.

5 facts:

1) The war in #Ethiopia is not an insurgency. The Abiy-TPLF conflict is more akin to an interstate war b/w 2 large professional militaries—each w/ heavy arms & mechanized infantry (and in the gov’t’s case airpower)—albeit backed by militia.

2) This is not solely a domestic issue. It is an unquestionable threat to international peace and security. #Ethiopia’s neighbors are implicated politically and likely militarily. 7,000+ refugees have already fled to Sudan with 100s of 1000s to follow.

3) Ethnic polarization is acute, hate speech and incitement are extreme, and every warning sign of mass atrocities in #Ethiopia is present.

4) This is not just a Tigray problem. That conflict is one element of a national political crisis that can only be solved with politics, not by force of arms.

5) The fragmentation of Ethiopia would be the largest state collapse in modern history. There are nearly as many people in Tigray than in all of Libya. Ethiopia’s population is 5x that of pre-war Syria’s.