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For decades, Howard County, MD, an educated, affluent, diverse suburb nestled among DC & Baltimore, has been an effective bellwether in statewide races. HoCo has voted for the winning gov. ticket in all but one election since 1966 & the winning pres. ticket in MD since 1980.
The county's vote margin also typically mirrors that of the state. Here's a few examples:
2018 Gov -
Statewide: 55.4 R / 43.5 D
HoCo: 56.2 R / 42.6 D
2016 Pres -
Statewide: 60.3 D / 33.9 R
HoCo: 63.3 D / 29.3 R
2014 Gov -
Statewide: 51 R / 47.2 D
HoCo: 51.5 R / 46.7 D
(MDBOE)
2018 Gov -
Statewide: 55.4 R / 43.5 D
HoCo: 56.2 R / 42.6 D
2016 Pres -
Statewide: 60.3 D / 33.9 R
HoCo: 63.3 D / 29.3 R
2014 Gov -
Statewide: 51 R / 47.2 D
HoCo: 51.5 R / 46.7 D
(MDBOE)
This year however, Howard's bellwether status is being called into question because of the extreme gap between it's margin and the statewide margin in this year's presidential race. Take a look:
2020 Pres (preliminary) -
Statewide: 64 D / 33.6 R
HoCo: 70.5 D / 26.7 R
(MDBOE)
2020 Pres (preliminary) -
Statewide: 64 D / 33.6 R
HoCo: 70.5 D / 26.7 R
(MDBOE)
So what's happening? Is this disparity because of President Trump being so unpopular in Howard County? Or has the county shifted to the left too far to be a reliable bellwether anymore?
Lol, beats me, but this is definitely something to watch for in future statewide races.
Lol, beats me, but this is definitely something to watch for in future statewide races.
Love to hear some thoughts! @SenhorRaposa @TadeuszMrozek2 @jackcurran49 @realtonys1 @CalTheReporter @MileahKromer @krazgreinetz @JimNPol
