Westminster somersaulted overnight at the scoop by @elliottimes that Lee Cain, currently Director of Communications is “poised” to be made Boris Johnson’s chief of staff. Congratulations to Times political editor on throwing a pebble which has caused **quite** so many waves.

This thread is not about household names. But the issues matter - because it touches on two key things in government, its direction, and who exercises grip on the prime minister. How powerful is the Vote Leave faction? And the rest?

What’s going on? Lee Cain is a long standing senior aide to the prime minister. He worked with BJ on the 2016 Vote Leave campaign. Alongside him in the Foreign Office and - importantly - during the wilderness years after he resigned from Theresa May’s government. Boris trusts him

So why the talk of change, and potential promotion for Cain? Firstly because there’s a feeling that the Boris Johnson needs to get a better grip: u-turns on lockdown, furlough, exams and free school meals have left MPs and the PM himself wondering whether he’s got the right setup

NB currently Johnson doesn’t have a chief of staff. It’s not Cummings (who is “senior advisor”) nor Lord Lister (ditto). Who would President Biden’s chief of staff call? Change was coming. @alexwickham had 10 Chief of Staff candidates last month https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-brace-brace-liverpool-lockdown-no-10-chief-of-staff-runners-and-riders/

There is concern among some this appointment might dilute the influence of the Vote Leave faction in gvt. “The PM is known to be talking more others in the past month”, said one Vote Leave-r, suggesting a motive for changes would be to cement influence of Cummings and allies.

Lee Cain was not one of those mooted in Politico as chief of staff, which is why his name connected to that job caused such a surprise overnight. “Never bet against Lee” said one Westminster source.

BUT
All has not been well. Multiple sources suggest he is unhappy at the appointment of Allegra Stratton, the Rishi Sunak aide fronting new press briefings. He was interested in other candidates, Johnson was keen on Stratton. Cd she be one of the “others” VL alumni worry about?

The daily televised press briefings from January will be a big deal. Stratton will become the face of Number 10 on TV. Inevitably, this role would force her to the centre of events in Downing Street. Yet people see no signs of tensions being patched up with Cain.

Now it appears Cain is being given a big boost with reports he could be in line for Chief of Staff. This is NOT confirmed by Number 10. Many including Vote Leave alumni say they are reserving judgement, not sure whether it will happen. WhatsApp has had a busy morning

It would be a big boost for one faction - the Vote Leave faction - in government though, and this morning it’s aggravating factional tensions. One government source from one faction this morning described another faction as “monsters”, so you can see how well everything is going

Along with Cain’s promotion, the Times reports a plan to consolidate 1-on-1 access to the PM to him, Cummings and Lister, as Cabinet Secretary Simon Case. Notably, not Allegra Stratton or others suggesting that she would have to represent government from a middle tier position?

If Cain’s promotion to chief of staff goes ahead, the question being asked by some in gvt (including those who didn't want it) this morning is will the Daily Televised press briefings ever go ahead. They were his idea, but if he is unhappy with her...? Would he still want it to?

So lots of uncertainty, just as we hit the 7 days to go mark for a brexit deal, with the EU hinting today there’ll be a take-it-or-leave-it offer from the EU next Wednesday, it’s a busy day to be having a factional row..

What does Dominic Cummings think? Well I don’t have a contemporary readout. But someone sent me this, from his blog, from October 30, 2014
https://dominiccummings.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/

Now this from @bbclaurak

Responding to the person saying “never bet against Lee”, one person with close connections to the centre replied “But what I would say is don’t bet against Carrie ....” https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1326498204976877574